What followed was 70
years of secular bear market conditions.
Not exact matches
If we are in fact in a long, post-Bull trading range — see our 100 -
year Dow chart — than this is
year ~ 5
of what could be a 10 - 15
year secular Bear market.
Despite the intense volatility
of stocks over the last few
years, investors can navigate through a
secular bear market if they understand its nature and how to respond.
But «once bit, twice shy,» the Jewish people have
borne enough teethmarks in the past 2,000
years to have become a bit skeptical
of those pseudo-messiahs — religious or
secular, Marxist or Moonie — who arise with almost monotonous regularity.
From that standpoint, there's no chance that the 2009 low was the beginning
of a
secular bull, both because valuations weren't nearly low enough (prospective 10 -
year returns briefly exceeded 10 % annually, but were nowhere close to those accompanying the beginning
of previous
secular bulls), and also because at present, valuations are already about the point where one would look for a
secular bear to start.
At
secular bear market lows, the Shiller P / E (S&P 500 divided by the 10 -
year average
of inflation - adjusted earnings) has typically been about 7, as we saw in 1942 - 1950 and in 1982.
From a historical perspective, the 1966 through 1982
Secular Bear Market was the third one we have had since 1900 and was not overwhelming in terms
of loss, it simply meandered sideways virtually going nowhere for 16.5
years.
An average
bear market within a «
secular»
bear market period (a period generally about 17 - 18
years, where valuations begin at rich levels and achieve progressively lower levels over the course
of 3 - 4 separate bull -
bear cycles) is about 39 %, and wipes out about 80 %
of the preceding bull market advance.
13
of the 15
years span a
secular bear market.
Because multiples were low and inflation measures were flattening out, there was no signal prior to the nearly 30 percent decline during the summer
of 1982, which marked the end
of a 17 -
year secular bear market.
But he did say that he can't understand why investors are willing to accept the idea
of cyclical
bear markets (which last in the neighborhood
of two and half
years) but not
secular ones.
At the end
of the 1966 though 1982
secular bear market the Dow Jones Industrial Average had lost over (17 %)-- it had traded in a tight trading range for over 16
years.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.18 % per
year over the course
of this
secular bear market and to put this into perspective, a CD (Certificate
of Deposit), made a more attractive investment than the «Blue Chip» stocks
of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
A TIPS - only baseline is a great starting point in the early
years of a long lasting (
secular)
bear market.
A
secular bear or bull market is a prolonged trend
of falling or rising stock prices, lasting about five to 20
years, though there's no strict definition.
We are in the earlier
years of a long lasting (
secular)
Bear Market.
Let's look at each
secular bull and
bear market
of the Dow over the last 100
years.