«Looking at 1,000
years of temperature records, researchers found that natural variability in surface temperatures over the course of just a decade can account for increases and dips in warming rates.»
The comparison spanned years 1880 (the first
year of the temperature records) through 1997 (the last year of the tree - ring data).
As far as the original post goes, if you simply look at calculated forcings from known sources (Volcanic Aerosol, Solar Irradience and Greenhouse gases) you can replicate the last 150
years of temperature records surprisingly well; take any of these factors out and you can not.
Huffingtonpost: Time has proven that even 22 years ago climate scientists understood the dynamics behind global warming well enough to accurately predict warming, says an analysis that compares predictions in 1990 with 20
years of temperature records.
I used the mean of the first 30
years of the temperature record.
Even 250
years of temperature records, and quite sparse records in early periods, is only as long as a gnat's eyelash on a climatic scale.
(80 is chosen because we have about 100
years of temperature record, and we have to at least test a prediction on 1966 - 1988 in order to test a model which will be used to predict 1988 to 2010).
Not exact matches
In the U.S.,
temperatures continue to set new
records as the fire season in many parts
of the country has now stretched to as many as 300 days
of the
year.
During the first third
of the
year, from January through April, the average
temperature for the contiguous United States was 4 degrees Fahrenheit above the 20th - century average, making this period the second warmest on
record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
It was a «roller - coaster ride»
of a growing
year that ended with a long, likely below - average - sized harvest punctuated by
record September
temperatures and October wildfires...
El Niño Now Among Strongest in Modern History; Unusually Warm and Unsettled Conditions Persist in California: Not only is 2015 California's warmest
year on
record to date (beating the previous
record set all the way back in 2014), but the details
of the persistently elevated
temperatures have been particularly oppressive...
The amount
of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere grew at a
record rate in 2016 to a level not seen for millions
of years, potentially fueling a 20 - meter (65 - foot) rise in sea levels and adding 3 degrees to
temperatures, the United Nations said.
«We only have about 150
years of direct measurements
of temperature, so if, for example, we want to estimate how great
of variations that can be expected over 100
years, we look at the
temperature record for that period, but it can not tell us what we can expect for the
temperature record over 1000
years.
For a start, observational
records are now roughly five
years longer, and the global
temperature increase over this period has been largely consistent with IPCC projections
of greenhouse gas — driven warming made in previous reports dating back to 1990.
Manley's Central England
record coincides well with the
year - to -
year rises and falls
of temperature proxies: tree rings and written
records of when winter ice spread over rivers or harbors and trees sprouted leaves.
Dust found in the ice gives a
record of what was in the air thousands
of years ago, whether from volcanic eruptions or human activity, and the isotopic composition
of the hydrogen and oxygen molecules in the snow give a
record of the
temperature of the earth at the time.
This
year, the waters in Lake Superior are on track to reach — and potentially exceed — the lake's
record - high
temperature of 68 degrees Fahrenheit
Boersma and Rebstock looked at the cause
of every
recorded chick mortality in an Argentinian colony
of Magellanic penguins, over a nearly 30 -
year period, and compared these with changes in
temperature and precipitation over the same time.
The scientists, led by Eric Oliver
of Dalhousie University in Canada, investigated long - term heat wave trends using a combination
of satellite data collected since the 1980s and direct ocean
temperature measurements collected throughout the 21st century to construct a nearly 100 -
year record of marine heat wave frequency and duration around the world.
So Javier Martin - Torres
of the Luleå University
of Technology in Kiruna, Sweden, and colleagues have tracked the weather conditions on Mars throughout Curiosity's first Martian
year,
recording humidity, air and ground
temperatures with its Rover Environmental Monitoring Station (REMS).
The team used
records of oxygen isotope ratios (which provide a
record of ancient water
temperature) from microscopic plankton fossils recovered from the Mediterranean Sea, spanning the last 5.3 million
years.
The
temperature record of the past 1000
years describes the reconstruction
of temperature for the last 1000
years on the Northern Hemisphere.
The team studied the
records of temperature, cool - season precipitation and stream flow for the
years 1906 to 2012.
The units
recorded the location and
temperature of the animals every 15 minutes for two
years.
The researchers analyzed
temperature records for the
years 1881 to 2013 from HadCRUT4, a widely used data set for land and sea locations compiled by the University
of East Anglia and the U.K. Met Office.
The statewide average
temperature for the first six months
of 2014 was 1.1 degree F warmer than it has been for the past 120
years of records
The
record exemplifies a
temperature pattern that has held across the country for much
of the
year, with above - average
temperatures in the West and below average in the East.
To create their new
temperature record, which spans 3.5 million
years at the end
of the Cretaceous and the start
of the Paleogene Period, the researchers analyzed the isotopic composition
of 29 remarkably well - preserved shells
of clam - like bivalves collected on Antarctica's Seymour Island.
The tags, developed by CSIRO and Zelcon Technic, a small electronics company in Hobart,
record measurements
of temperature, depth and location for five
years and store them for 20.
Scientists expect it to wind down by early 2017, as global
temperatures recede after three successive
years of record heat.
«Ice cores only tell you about
temperatures in Antarctica,» Shakun notes
of previous studies that relied exclusively on an ice core from Antarctica that
records atmospheric conditions over the last 800,000
years.
The researchers found that due to warm spring
temperatures on Kodiak, the berries were developing fruit weeks earlier, at the same time as the peak
of the salmon migration; 2014 was one
of the warmest
years on the island since
record - keeping began 60
years ago.
Shakun and his colleagues started by creating the first global set
of temperature proxies — a set
of 80 different
records from around the world that
recorded temperatures from roughly 20,000
years ago to 10,000
years ago.
Subtracting known influences and comparing their results with satellite
records of Earth's day length, they found that elevated
temperatures in the pool during El Niño
years correlated with days that were a few microseconds longer than in other
years.
If 2014 maintains this
temperature departure from average for the remainder
of the
year, it will be the warmest
year on
record.
We present a synthesis
of decadally resolved proxy
temperature records from poleward
of 60 ° N covering the past 2000
years, which indicates that a pervasive cooling in progress 2000
years ago continued through the Middle Ages and into the Little Ice Age.
After six months
of preparation, Bartholomaus was ready to set loose the instruments that will
record temperature and current changes in the fjord for a full
year.
Minor winter storms the previous
year contributed to less snowfall, drier soil, and
recorded temperatures of more than 30 degrees Fahrenheit higher in some states than in summer 2011.
«The new
record high calendar
year temperature averaged across Australia is remarkable because it occurred not in an El Niño
year, but a normal
year,» David Karoly, a climate scientist from the School
of Earth Sciences, University
of Melbourne, said in an emailed statement.
It is part
of a trend that saw Sydney's
temperature climb to over 47 °C earlier this month — the highest
recorded in the city for 79
years — and could see both it and Melbourne experiencing mega ‑ heatwaves with highs
of 50 °C by 2040.
These elevated
temperatures have led to a
record third
year of a global coral bleaching event.
The first half
of 2016 has blown away
temperature records, capped off by a
record hot June, once again bumping up the odds that 2016 will be the hottest
year on
record globally, according to data released Tuesday.
According to NOAA, the global average ocean
temperature for the first half
of the
year is 1.42 °F (0.79 °C) above the 20th century average, the largest such departure in 137
years of records.
Temperatures last
year broke a 2015
record by almost 0.2 C (0.36 F), Copernicus said, boosted by a build - up
of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and by a natural El Nino weather event in the Pacific Ocean, which releases heat to the atmosphere.
The Arctic has been one
of the areas
of the world that has seen sky - high
temperatures this
year, which have led to
record - low sea ice levels.
As
of 30 November, worldwide surface
temperatures mark 2000 as the fifth - warmest
year since 1880, while the United States was headed for an all - time
record until a frigid November set in.
Last
year was the third hottest on
record in the United States, with an average
temperature of 54.6 degrees Fahrenheit — 2.6 F above average.
The succession
of temperature records has also been accompanied by other notable climate
records, including thebiggest ever
year - to -
year jump in carbon dioxide levels at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii, as well as a
record low winter Arctic sea ice peak.
«Last
year's
temperatures had an assist from El Niño, but it is the cumulative effect
of the long - term trend that has resulted in the
record warming that we are seeing.»
So the report notes that the current «pause» in new global average
temperature records since 1998 — a
year that saw the second strongest El Nino on
record and shattered warming
records — does not reflect the long - term trend and may be explained by the oceans absorbing the majority
of the extra heat trapped by greenhouse gases as well as the cooling contributions
of volcanic eruptions.