Imagine, for a moment, that we could split the U.S. high
yield bond market into two categories: those securities owned by the passive investors, and everything else, which is owned by the active investors.
Not exact matches
It puts 25 %
into foreign stocks, 25 %
into U.S. Treasuries, and 10 % each
into commodities, emerging -
market currency, bank loans, high -
yield bonds, and 5 % each
into TIPS and local - currency emerging -
market debt.
Exchange - traded funds that track high -
yield bond indexes have been the beneficiaries of a cash surge in recent weeks as
market participants figure the central bank probably won't raise rates in 2015, and it could be well
into 2016 before anything happens.
Also, Ablin added a large portion of the recent rally involved a rotation from
bonds into stocks as low interest rates forced investors to seek
yield in the stock
market.
Then «tapering» talk by the Federal Reserve caused U.S.
bond yields to shoot up and draw back the capital that had earlier flowed
into the emerging
markets, putting more downward pressure on financial
markets and currencies.
He said the team thinks there aren't enough rate hikes priced
into the fixed - income
market and therefore he likes the long end of the
yield curve, or longer duration
bonds.
When
bonds yield 1.75 % for investment - grade
bonds, then it's difficult to turn that
into a 5 % -10 % return going forward... If he wants to argue against that, and talk about Dow 5000 and bear and bull
markets, then he's welcome to, but he's pushing at windmills in my opinion, and he belongs back in his ivory tower.
But cash isn't such a bad thing in a rising rate environment as the
yield pick up rather quickly on money
market accounts or you can roll some of that over
into higher
yielding short - term
bonds.
Finally, the Fed's easy - money policies have pushed investors
into the stock
market because
bond yields are so low.
I still think there will be a flight to safety in sovereign
bonds when stocks have a bear
market but other areas such as high
yield and corporate debt could run
into some problems.
And I think that given higher volatility in the
markets, going
into higher
yielding bonds or stocks, the risker ones, is unadvisable.
A huge number of sellers would be pouring
into a
market with a dearth of buyers, setting up a scenario where
bond prices cascade and
yields explode.
After a relentless search for
yield, investors have piled
into dividend -
yielding, defensive stocks, or what we call «
bond market proxies,» making many such segments extremely expensive.
One of the biggest transformations in global financial
markets is the drop in government
bond yields — not only to historic lows but
into negative territory.
Higher oil prices would reinforce current
market trends based on reflation: rising long - term
bond yields and a shift out of perceived safer assets —
bond proxies and low - volatility stocks — and
into cyclical assets such as EM.
While much of the outflows so far have been a result of investors switching out of high
yield into safer money -
market and government
bond funds, Gutteridge believes we have seen the bulk of the selling.
But I am concerned that late - cycle entrants
into risk assets like stocks and high -
yield bonds are taking a leap of faith at a time when there is less room for
markets to move up and growing risks of them falling back.
Non-asset holders were punished — their bank deposits now generate little or no income, and they were forced to move
into riskier assets, such as stocks,
bonds, real estate, or «anything that offers some
yield and is not bolted down to the floor» (please see my answer to What kind of
market distortions does the Fed loaning out money at 0 % cause?).
If much of the investment
into bond mutual funds that has occurred the last couple of years is for purposes of dampening the volatility of a portfolio — and with the 10 - Year Treasury
yield at 1.8 percent it's difficult to argue for a different motivation - then it's important to think through the thesis that
bonds will defend a balanced portfolio in an equity bear
market in the same way they have, especially to the extent they have in the last two bear
markets.
In 2015 Creditex expanded
into serving the
bond market, through the launch of ICE Credit Trade, a leading electronic platform for trading investment grade and high
yield corporate
bonds.
Rates subsequently bear steepened as long - end led the weakness, but renewed decline in risk sentiment managed to create a soft ceiling for
bond yields, and the rates
market rallied
into the close.
The global search for
yield has driven many fixed income investors
into unfamiliar territory, leading them to embrace more credit risk and even venture beyond the
bond markets — not just
into dividend - paying equities but also
into selling equity options.
Currently, BBB - rated
bonds are equal to 45 % of the entire outstanding high -
yield market, which has increased from 30 % a decade ago.3 Since BBB is the lowest investment - grade
bond rating, the risk is that many poor credits will fall, like angels, from the investment - grade
into the high -
yield universe.
By taking a deeper look; we can break apart the total
yield on the US government 30 year
bond (Chart: light blue data)
into its two parts: (1) the
market's estimate of the inflation rate (Chart: green data) and (2) the resulting «real» (after inflation) rate of interest (Chart: dark blue data).
In another segment of the
bond market,
yields on Fannie Mae mortgage - backed securities — those used to guide lenders
into the
bond market — jumped to 3.21 percent in their biggest move since mid-2009, the Journal reported.
So while low and negative interest rates across the globe has inspired flows
into stocks, emerging
market bonds and corporate credit in search of higher
yields, keep in mind the high correlations of these assets to oil prices and the advantages of holding actual diversifiers in your portfolio to smooth the ride.
Currency impact can be managed by hedging local currencies back
into U.S. dollar, allowing investors to potentially earn local
market yields and take advantage of potential local
bond price appreciation, with less currency fluctuations.
One of the biggest transformations in global financial
markets is the drop in government
bond yields — not only to historic lows but
into negative territory.
Financial planner Michael Kitces notes that this is hardly the first time that retirees have faced challenging financial
markets, including long periods where
bond yields have been low and the stock
market has stagnated or gone
into a prolonged slump.
But I'd be wary of venturing, as some investors seeking higher
yields do,
into high -
yield, or junk,
bond funds, as they're generally more volatile than investment - grade funds and don't hold up as well in periods of economic and
market stress.
The low
yield environment is pushing them
into bond market substitutes.
Just think back to September 2015, when large high -
yield bond issuer Sprint was downgraded several notches, spurring a furious selloff that bled
into broader
markets.
High -
yield bonds are
into their second year of sub-par returns, and much of Canada's preferred share
market (fixed floaters and rate resets) has declined approximately 25 per cent in the past year.
The fact is, individual
bonds have
market values that fluctuate with
market conditions too, but it takes some effort to translate that
into a
yield figure at given moment, so it's easy to tune it out and forget it exists.
They consider four potential predictors: (1) the default spread (between Moody's BAA and AAA rated
bonds); (2) the broad stock
market dividend
yield; (3) the implied volatility of the S&P 500 Index (VIX); and, (4) the monthly net aggregate flow
into the hedge fund industry.
Yield to maturity (YTM) is used for OID
bonds and takes
into account the
bond's current
market price, par value, coupon interest rate and time to maturity.
As they came
into the
market,
bond yields fell and
bond prices, which move in the opposite direction to
yields, began to gain ground, providing a nice capital gain to holders.
Private
market investments provide vital diversification
into assets uncorrelated with stocks and
bonds, which can improve risk - adjusted returns through higher
yield potential, lower beta, and greater protection from
market volatility.
Looking
into the 10 countries in the S&P Pan Asia Sovereign
Bond Index, the highest -
yielding market was India (at 7.50 %), followed by Indonesia (at 7.40 %), see exhibit 1.
That turns a 4 %
yield into something worth at least 5 %, which all but ensures a healthy
market for the
bonds.
Trump's victory has sent the
bond markets into disarray, with the
yield on government
bonds rising steeply.
He classifies asset classes
into core (domestic equities, treasury
bonds, inflation - linked
bonds, foreign developed equity, emerging
markets equity, real estate domestic, foreign and emerging
markets,
bonds, TIPS and REITs) and non-core (domestic corporate
bonds, high -
yield bonds, tax - exempt
bonds, asset - backed securities, foreign
bonds, hedge funds, leveraged buyouts, and venture capital), explains the reasons why investors should favour the former and stay clear of the latter.
A video using the Regime Portfolios Backtest to check - in on using high -
yield bonds as information
into the state of the
market.
I have other short positions in my portfolio, so for long
bond yields to continue to tank, it would probably take some sort of exogenous event or major
market malaise, which would translate
into gains elsewhere in the portfolio.
This
yield takes
into account the series of capital losses the fund will experience as its above -
market - rate
bonds mature.
When you have many different parties going
into the
markets seeking income, not caring where they get it from, and a shock hits one part of the
market, the effect flows to other areas If all of a sudden
yields on junk
bonds look cheaper, the
yield trade - offs of buying junk and selling dividend paying common stocks looks attractive.
Its value is typically inversely correlated to the rest of the
market as a whole, because its status as a material, durable store of value makes it a preferred «safe haven» to move money
into in times of economic downturn, when stock prices,
bond yields and similar investments are losing value.
Personally I hold 4 main assets, higher
yielding shares, property, gold and
bonds but I guess I'm getting off topic a bit so I'll say no more other than If I could go back in time and advise a young me I'd say get a mortgage as soon as possible but also drip feed money
into the stock
market on a regular basis.
To take the extreme case, it's very rare for the Baa - rated corporate
bond yield to be less than the average REIT dividend
yield: that has happened only at times when investors were most dramatically avoiding REITs, most recently in March 2009 at the lowest point of the Great Financial Crisis — and in the 12 months following that episode, those investors who bucked the
market and bought
into REITs were rewarded with total returns that exceeded 100 percent.