In the U.S. those further benefits crucially flowed through the wealth effect channel: substitution of lower risk assets such as bank deposits and Treasuries for high
yield bonds and equities led to price increases in those risky assets.
One of the biggest proponents of indexing, Rick Ferri, has a post up talking about why for muni bonds, high
yield bonds and equity value it may make sense to move beyond index funds.
Not exact matches
His specialties, he says, include «financial reporting, board reports, mutual fund expenses, short - term investment vehicles, fund fact sheets, mutual fund daily reconciliations, closed - end funds, UCITS, fixed income, high -
yield bonds, convertible
bonds, [
and]
equities.»
On Wednesday,
bond yields in both the U.S.
and Germany reached highs on the year, which likely helped trigger a selloff in
equity markets Thursday.
«If we assume extremely pessimistic nominal earnings growth of 3 % over the coming decade
and a compression in the price - earnings ratio to 10,
equities would still deliver returns above current
bond yields.
For, with long - term taxable
bonds yielding 5 percent
and long - term tax - exempt
bonds 3 percent, a business operation that could utilize
equity capital at 10 percent clearly was worth some premium to investors over the
equity capital employed.
Lewis, fund's chief investment officer, spent nine years at Citigroup as a director of the bank's global special situations group, a $ 5 billion prop - trading group that specialized in distressed debt, high -
yield bonds,
and value
equity.
A negative outcome in the stress tests could send
equities lower
and Greek
bond yields higher.
With
equity valuations at historic highs
and government
bonds barely eking out a return, junk
bonds offer solid
yields at a good price, he reasons.
We like how they've got some natural tailwinds around
bond yields and equity markets,» he says.
Most investors shy away from
bonds because they
yield (or return) less than
equities and tend to be more complex in nature.
As
bond yields rise the spread between the two narrows, prompting asset allocation changes between
equities and fixed income.
On Monday, investors rushed into Treasuries as the S&P 500
and Dow Jones Industrial Average nosedived more than 4 percent - reversing a move on Friday when a spike in
bond yields, which move inversely to prices, triggered an
equity rout.
Certainly, it offers an attractive level for longer - term investors such as pension
and insurance funds to lock in a relatively decent
yield,
and will tempt some portfolio managers to buy
bonds rather than
equities.
yields will hit the highs on close end of the day...
equity markets setting up to be slammed tomorrow maybe but today they have run over weak shorts in the face of rates... the federal reserve see's this
and again will wonder if they are behind on hikes, strong data, major expansion in credit, lack of wage growth rising
bond yields and ballooning debt... rates will go much higher
and equities will have revelations as to what that means for valuations
The market's price action since late January hasn't been inspiring,
and with
bond yields up, commodity prices higher
and sharp price moves among
equities, it might be time to break out the bear suit.
A move up in the US 10 - year
bond yield (2.965 % - 2.995 %)
and mostly firmer global
equities were a headwind for gold.
During times of recession the economy is stimulated with low interest rates
and once they get low enough, the
yield on
bonds and other fixed investments becomes so unattractive that money starts to flow into
equities.
A high quality muni -
bond portfolio can
yield close to 4 % tax free, with inflation essentially not existent
and equities at an all time high I'm curious if there is a flaw in my logic?
At the start of the sustained rise in
equity prices, stock dividend
yields exceeded the
yields on Treasury
bonds and this was perceived as normal, partly reflecting the searing experience of the Great Depression.
Moderate Growth
and Income Four Asset Group model portfolio without private capital: 3 % Bloomberg Barclays 1 — 3 Month Treasury Bill Index, 11 % Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate
Bond Index (5 — 7Y), 6 % Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate
Bond Index (10 + Y), 6 % Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate High
Yield Bond Index, 3 % JPM GBI Global ex. - U.S. Index, 5 % JPM EMBI Global Index, 20 % S&P 500 Index, 8 % Russell Midcap ® Index, 6 % Russell 2000 ® Index, 5 % MSCI EAFE Index (USD), 5 % MSCI EM Index (USD), 5 % FTSE EPRA / NAREIT Developed Index, 2 % Bloomberg Commodity Index, 3 % HFRI Relative Value Index, 6 % HFRI Macro Index, 4 % HFRI Event - Driven Index, 2 % HFRI
Equity Hedge Index.
In other words,
equity dividends are higher by a third of a percentage points than quality
bond yields,
and that's before the dividend tax credit
and before any capital gains.
iShares S&P ® / TSX ® 60 Index Fund («XIU»), iShares S&P / TSX Capped Composite Index Fund («XIC»), iShares S&P / TSX Completion Index Fund («XMD»), iShares S&P / TSX SmallCap Index Fund («XCS»), iShares S&P / TSX Capped Energy Index Fund («XEG»), iShares S&P / TSX Capped Financials Index Fund («XFN»), iShares S&P / TSX Global Gold Index Fund («XGD»), iShares S&P / TSX Capped Information Technology Index Fund («XIT»), iShares S&P / TSX Capped REIT Index Fund («XRE»), iShares S&P / TSX Capped Materials Index Fund («XMA»), iShares Diversified Monthly Income Fund («XTR»), iShares S&P 500 Index Fund (CAD - Hedged)(«XSP»), iShares Jantzi Social Index Fund («XEN»), iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend Index Fund («XDV»), iShares Dow Jones Canada Select Growth Index Fund («XCG»), iShares Dow Jones Canada Select Value Index Fund («XCV»), iShares DEX Universe
Bond Index Fund («XBB»), iShares DEX Short Term
Bond Index Fund («XSB»), iShares DEX Real Return
Bond Index Fund («XRB»), iShares DEX Long Term
Bond Index Fund («XLB»), iShares DEX All Government
Bond Index Fund («XGB»),
and iShares DEX All Corporate
Bond Index Fund («XCB»), iShares MSCI EAFE ® Index Fund (CAD - Hedged)(«XIN»), iShares Russell 2000 ® Index Fund (CAD - Hedged)(«XSU»), iShares Conservative Core Portfolio Builder Fund («XCR»), iShares Growth Core Portfolio Builder Fund («XGR»), iShares Global Completion Portfolio Builder Fund («XGC»), iShares Alternatives Completion Portfolio Builder Fund («XAL»), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund («XEM»)
and iShares MSCI World Index Fund («XWD»), iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund («XBZ»), iShares China Index Fund («XCH»), iShares S&P CNX Nifty India Index Fund («XID»), iShares S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund («XLA»), iShares U.S. High
Yield Bond Index Fund (CAD - Hedged)(«XHY»), iShares U.S. IG Corporate
Bond Index Fund (CAD - Hedged)(«XIG»), iShares DEX HYBrid
Bond Index Fund («XHB»), iShares S&P / TSX North American Preferred Stock Index Fund (CAD - Hedged)(«XPF»), iShares S&P / TSX
Equity Income Index Fund («XEI»), iShares S&P / TSX Capped Consumer Staples Index Fund («XST»), iShares Capped Utilities Index Fund («XUT»), iShares S&P / TSX Global Base Metals Index Fund («XBM»), iShares S&P Global Healthcare Index Fund (CAD - Hedged)(«XHC»), iShares NASDAQ 100 Index Fund (CAD - Hedged)(«XQQ»)
and iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets
Bond Index Fund (CAD - Hedged)(«XEB»)(collectively, the «Funds») may or may not be suitable for all investors.
To the extent any rise in
bond yields is modest
and gradual, these same developments would be positive for
equity markets.
The era of cheap or zero - interest money that led to a wall of liquidity chasing high
yields and assets —
equities,
bonds, currencies,
and commodities — in emerging markets is drawing to a close.
That said, if
bond yields were to climb substantially, let's say towards 4 %, history suggests that the negative relationship between
bond yields and equity valuations will begin to reassert itself.
Fears that the current crop of earnings may be as good as it gets
and that higher
bond yields will sap demand for
equities, all...
The apparent one - to - one relationship between Treasury
yields and equity yields during that span (which is the entire basis for the «Fed Model») is anything but a «fair value» relationship between stocks
and bonds.
We invest in countries around the world at all levels of the capital structure — from debt (first lien bank debt, second lien loans
and high
yield bonds) to undervalued
equity.
Positions that have recently come undone include betting on steepening
yield curves
and inflation expectations (inflation - linked over nominal
bonds)--
and in
equity markets, picking value over growth shares.
Finally, modestly higher
bond yields support our view that the rotation into value
and momentum shares away from low - volatility
equities likely isn't over.
At the same time, some 70 per cent of government - issued
bonds are
yielding 1 per cent or less,
and when you combine the
equity /
bond value of the 15 largest global markets they've never been more expensive.
As
bond yields surged on Friday, high -
yielding segments of the
equity market such as utilities
and REITs came under the most pressure, which shows that it won't take much of a rise in
yields to derail their rally.
For the following F - series funds, these dates were: Corporate Advantage Fund (September 11, 2015), High
Yield Bond Fund (hedged
and unhedged)(September 11, 2015), Canadian Dividend Fund (September 11, 2015), US
Equity Fund (May 25, 2016), US Dividend Fund (September 26, 2016), US Small / Mid-Cap
Equity Fund (October 31, 2016), International
Equity Plus Fund (May 25, 2016), Income Advantage Fund (September 11, 2015),
and Balanced Fund (August 25, 2015).
Our Investment Strategy Report published on March 19 compared
equity and bond yields over multiple business cycles
and found that the 10 - year Treasury
yield might have to sustain levels exceeding 3.5 % (far above what we believe is likely this year) before compelling a year - end 2018 S&P 500 Index target range below our current year - end target of 2800 - 2900.2
The fund adjusts its allocations daily based upon
equity and bond market volatility, correlation between the
bond and equity indexes,
and the
yield - to - maturity of the
bond index.
But this masks the reality that
equities —
and by extension other risk assets — still look attractive taking into account that
bond yields are likely to stay historically low.
In addition, sovereign wealth funds — which generally diversify their portfolios to include a small portion of alternate assets such as gold, private
equity and real estate — are likely to raise their allocations following the low
yield in government
bonds over the last couple of years.
The SNB's «profit was lifted by a trio of positive forces: Low
bond yields preserved the value of its foreign
bonds; higher
equity prices raised the value of SNB holdings...
and the weaker Swiss currency made those foreign assets worth more in franc terms.»
We would find it boring
and normal in relation to startup
equity or high -
yield bonds.
US REITs have been double - hammered by the rise in
bond yields and equity market correction.
Their cost of capital is a function partly of low interest rates
and part of the implicit share price is a function of the fact that investors have looked at
equities for dividends rather than
bonds for
yield because the
bond market is so expensive.
He also noted that it is a very poor time to buy corporate
bonds (high
yield bond index
yield 4.93 %)
and Gundlach sees a negative return for the S&P in 2018 as the rates rout eventually gives the
equity market the yips.
Under the extreme stress of 2008,
bonds behaved like
equities, with a sudden spike in
yields and recovery within a year.
We don't expect renewed bouts of euphoria, but we see scope for investor optimism to lift
equities and other risk assets,
and see a mild rise in
bond yields.
When an individual without financial sophistication is faced with a choice between
equity and fixed - income funds, international or domestic, large - cap or small - cap, high -
yield or treasury
bonds, they face choice - overload
and the decision can be overwhelming.
Wilson recommends investors emphasize international over domestic
equities and upgrade their
bond portfolios, avoiding high
yield.
In the short run, rising
equity values would tend to drive
bond prices lower
and bond yields higher than they otherwise might have been.
We believe the jump in benchmark U.S. Treasury
yields after Trump's surprise win,
and the accompanying move toward cyclicals
and away from
bond - like
equities, represent an important regime shift for financial markets
and highlight risks to traditional portfolio diversification.
If much of the investment into
bond mutual funds that has occurred the last couple of years is for purposes of dampening the volatility of a portfolio —
and with the 10 - Year Treasury
yield at 1.8 percent it's difficult to argue for a different motivation - then it's important to think through the thesis that
bonds will defend a balanced portfolio in an
equity bear market in the same way they have, especially to the extent they have in the last two bear markets.