Are behaviors of government, corporate investment grade and corporate high -
yield bonds over this interval similar?
The way to make money in high
yield bonds over the long term is to try to avoid as many of the eventual defaults as possible.
Not exact matches
The dollar has rallied through much of the past week as concerns
over the U.S. - China trade dispute receded, and as the U.S. 10 - year
bond yield shot past 3 percent for the first time in four years.
That's exactly what has happened
over the last month, as shown in this graph of the
yield on the 10 year US treasury
bond for the last year (keep in mind that
yields going up means prices going down):
Also, as
bond rates rise, some of the money that migrated
over from the
bond market in search of higher
yields will return to the safety of fixed income.
«If they do target aggressively the 2 percent inflation target, and undertake a significant amount of QE, that may have an impact on underlying JGB (Japanese government
bond)
yields as investors become concerned
over Japan's debt,» he said.
Their declining currencies against the dollar (8 - 9 percent
over the past 12 months), falling stock market values since the beginning of the year and high (India) and rising (Brazil)
bond yields are reflecting their funding difficulties.
Concerns
over the French presidential election seemed to have eased slightly on Monday with the
yields on the 10 - year French
bond falling.
The gap between the earnings
yield on the S&P and Baa corporate
bonds is
over two standard deviations in favour of stocks.
Those figures come in an atmosphere of low interest rates, which depress
bond yields, and a relatively flat S&P 500
over the 12 months ending June.
«If we assume extremely pessimistic nominal earnings growth of 3 %
over the coming decade and a compression in the price - earnings ratio to 10, equities would still deliver returns above current
bond yields.
For, with long - term taxable
bonds yielding 5 percent and long - term tax - exempt
bonds 3 percent, a business operation that could utilize equity capital at 10 percent clearly was worth some premium to investors
over the equity capital employed.
April 26 - U.S. stock index futures pointed to a strong open for the tech - heavy Nasdaq on Thursday as a slew of upbeat earnings from Facebook and Qualcomm helped set aside worries
over rising U.S.
bond yields and corporate costs.
«But due to the low coupons prevailing, even a gradual rise in
yields will result in negative returns on a wide range of government
bonds over the coming quarters.»
«A bear market in
bonds calls for more than a global cyclical upswing, as not all forces that dragged
yields down
over the past decades have suddenly vanished,» argued Peter van der Welle, a strategist at Robeco.
The
yield on the BofA Merrill Lynch High Yield Bond index rose from just over 6 percent at the end of May to 7.9 percent as of Nov
yield on the BofA Merrill Lynch High
Yield Bond index rose from just over 6 percent at the end of May to 7.9 percent as of Nov
Yield Bond index rose from just
over 6 percent at the end of May to 7.9 percent as of Nov. 17.
However, rates have retreated from
over 8 percent in the last several weeks, and the credit risk of high -
yield bonds can offer some diversification from the interest - rate risk of a portfolio of Treasury
bonds.
«
Over the last 15 years, the difference between the five year government
bond yield and the overnight Bank of Canada rate has been a reliable indicator of the trend growth in the Canadian economy.
In the meantime,
bond yields have drifted higher and jumped shortly after 2 p.m. ET, finally pushing the 10 - year
over 2.6 percent for the first time since mid-December.
Neither argument holds right now for holding any tactical cash, especially with no reasonable prospects for a near - term rate increase and the
yield differential offered by
bonds over cash right now.
Bonds due in 2018 and won by BofA were «aggressively» priced with a 1.64 percent
yield that narrowed Illinois» spread
over Municipal Market Data's benchmark triple - A
yield curve to 70 basis points from 100 basis points ahead of the sale, Greg Saulnier, a MMD analyst, said.
BofA won
bonds due in 2029 with a
yield of 3.78 percent, which slightly increased the spread
over the scale to 165 basis points from 163 basis points, according to MMD, a unit of Thomson Reuters.
Second, the average time to maturity on U.S. debt is six years, meaning that most of the low -
yielding bonds now on the books will be exchanged for more expensive debt
over the next decade.
LONDON, April 25 (Reuters)- Worries
over rising
bond yields and falling metals prices trumped well - received earnings updates from Kering and Credit Suisse on Wednesday, sending European shares to a one - week low.
Concern remained
over higher
bond yields after the
yield on the U.S. 10 - year Treasury breached 3 percent level on Tuesday, making equities relatively less attractive.
yields will hit the highs on close end of the day... equity markets setting up to be slammed tomorrow maybe but today they have run
over weak shorts in the face of rates... the federal reserve see's this and again will wonder if they are behind on hikes, strong data, major expansion in credit, lack of wage growth rising
bond yields and ballooning debt... rates will go much higher and equities will have revelations as to what that means for valuations
US election + BREXIT = populist repudiation of era of inequality, globalization, wage deflation; cements BofAML themes of peak Liquidity, Inequality, Globalization + Main St
over Wall St. Electoral trends could mark secular low in long - term
bond yields (Chart 1).
Yes this is possible in any given year, but
over the longer term
bonds generally return close to their
yields.
The two largest funds in the segment — the $ 15 billion iShares iBoxx $ High
Yield Corporate
Bond ETF (HYG) and the $ 9 billion SPDR Bloomberg Barclays High
Yield Bond ETF (JNK)-- have faced sizable asset outflows as investors fret
over high valuations and rising interest rates.
So while there could be one or even five year periods where longer maturity
bonds perform fairly well from these
yield levels,
over the long - term they're likely to be a poor investment in terms of earning a decent return
over the rate of inflation.
More interesting is the return on the BofA Merrill Lynch U.S. High
Yield Energy
Bond index, which has a whopping 18.26 % return YTD, but
over the past year still has a negative 15.65 % return.
Over the past year, the
bond yield curve has been positive but flattening (short - term
yields remained lower than long - term
yields, but the differential has narrowed).
Although
bonds could potentially lose purchasing power
over the long run from current
yields they can still serve a purpose in a well - diversified portfolio.
And even if the indicator was valid (counterfactually), the article asks readers to accept as given that earnings are properly reported here, that they will grow by nearly 50 %
over the coming year, and that investors are willing to key the long - term return they require from stocks to the
yield on 10 - year
bonds, which has been abnormally depressed in a flight to safety.
Today, those
bonds yield just
over 3 %; the 10 - year Treasury currently generates about 2.3 % (source: Bloomberg, as of 10/19/2017).
The Government of Canada 10 - year
bond yield is currently 1.4 %, which offers a real
yield of minus 0.6 % (1.4 %
yield less 2 % inflation)
over 10 years.
But cash isn't such a bad thing in a rising rate environment as the
yield pick up rather quickly on money market accounts or you can roll some of that
over into higher
yielding short - term
bonds.
Back in 2007, before the financial crisis, a portfolio of investment grade
bonds would have
yielded comfortably
over 5 %.
This has been particularly important in bringing about the sharp convergence of
bond yields that we have seen around the world
over the past few years (Graphs 3 and 4).
Positions that have recently come undone include betting on steepening
yield curves and inflation expectations (inflation - linked
over nominal
bonds)-- and in equity markets, picking value
over growth shares.
I'd recommend at least a small allocation to
bonds or cash in the event that an unexpected expense comes up that
over and above the dividend
yield (although you could always create your own dividend by selling shares too).
Real
bond returns have been high
over the past 30 years or so because nominal starting
yields were high and inflation has fallen.
Finally, modestly higher
bond yields support our view that the rotation into value and momentum shares away from low - volatility equities likely isn't
over.
Over the long term the nominal return on a duration - managed
bond portfolio (or
bond index — the duration on those doesn't change very much) converges on the starting
yield.
(This rate is the difference between the
yield on
bonds that include an inflation risk premium and those on inflation protected
bonds; once you «net out» the latter, what's left
over is inflation expectations.)
But this week the 10 - year Treasury lost roughly 1.4 points, which translated into a 15 basis point jump in its
yield to 2.84 % The long
bond closed
over 3 %.
1: Widening credit spreads: An increase
over the past 6 months in either the spread between commercial paper and 3 - month Treasury
yields, or between the Dow Corporate
Bond Index
yield and 10 - year Treasury
yields.
The high
yield bond indices are rolling
over quickly.
When I was a junk
bond trader in the 1990s» we referred to anyone who bought a
bond yielding over 12 % as «a
yield hog.»
Our Investment Strategy Report published on March 19 compared equity and
bond yields over multiple business cycles and found that the 10 - year Treasury
yield might have to sustain levels exceeding 3.5 % (far above what we believe is likely this year) before compelling a year - end 2018 S&P 500 Index target range below our current year - end target of 2800 - 2900.2