Sentences with phrase «yield curve did»

Active bond managers focused on the short end of the yield curve did far better than their counterparts focused on equities and other pockets of the bond markets.

Yes, the yield curve did invert after the S&P topped in March 2000.

Duration and yield curve did not materially impact returns.

Wright's research seems to have been influential in Fed Chair Ben Bernanke's recent assessment that the current very flat yield curve does not signify a coming significant economic slowdown.

Second, Yield curves do not take place in a vaccuum.

The lesson here is that the different parts of the yield curve do not move in lockstep, and various lending markets can behave differently over any given period.

«The short end of the yield curve doesn't act like the middle or the long end,» he says.

Interest rates will be gradually rising as central banks wean the markets off accommodation, while the steady rise in stocks could see a correction if the bond yield curve doesn't steepen or if some political deals and promised fiscal measures hit roadblocks.

I'm sorry, but with an overindebted economy, we can have a structural, not cyclical recession, where the shape of the yield curve doesn't matter much because of all the debt.

M2 Monetary velocity is still low, and the long end of the yield curve does not have yield enough priced in for additional growth and inflation.

Not exact matches

Historically, the economy does not perform well in an environment in which the yield curve inverts.

«If the Fed continues to raise rates according to our forecast and the term premium does not recover, the yield curve would invert by the end of 2019, potentially as early as June of next year,» they write in a note.

I've never understood why Central Banks willingly invert yield curves, but they do and it almost always leads to a bad outcome.

(«Do you know what a bond yield curve is?»

San Francisco Fed President John Williams, said the yield - curve inversion was a powerful recession indicator but didn't see signs of it happening soon, and said he backed a gradual rate increase path.

By doing this, central banks hope to condition market expectations, lowering interest rates further out the yield curve (much like additional cuts to short - term interest rates would have done, had they been possible).

Traditionally, global equities do not peak until after the yield curve has inverted, he adds, but «given the very low - rate nature of this cycle, we'd expect a flat curve to weigh more heavily on sentiment and encourage a more defensive rotation.»

Stocks slide on rising rates and yield curve inversion concerns, but a recession doesn't look likely, judging by other economic data and the high - yield bond...

And the interview author had no idea that a piece was being written on yield curves, or he didn't know that his subject had published on the subject three decades ago.

2: Moderate or flat yield curve: 10 - year Treasury yield no more than 2.5 % above 3 - month Treasury yields (this doesn't create a strong risk of recession in and of itself).

«Does the flattening yield curve signal a recession?»

While a consolidation continues, we have vocally expected, and still do, a flattening of the yield curve.

The first thing they watch when doing so is how high or low interest rates on treasury bonds with different maturities are, which is also referred to as the yield curve.

With the exception of the very front end of the yield curve, Canadian government bond yields declined, as did spreads on investment grade corporate bonds.

If Fed liftoff does occur this fall as I expect, it's most likely to manifest in what is referred to as a flattening of the yield curve.

In doing so, investors are taking on a range of risks such as exposure to changes in the shape of the yield curve, credit spreads or exchange rates.

As usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already high price / peak earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for market losses, particularly given that the current bull market has now outlived the median and average bull, yet at higher valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal divergence as measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weakness.

It just so happens that under more normal monetary conditions, an extreme isn't reached and the reversal therefore doesn't occur until after the yield curve becomes inverted.

In particular, it doesn't take into account that as long as the Fed keeps a giant foot on short - term interest rates it will be virtually impossible for the yield curve to invert.

Currently, the yield curve is positively sloped (longer term rates above shorter term rates) which does not suggest a recession is imminent.

If the events above do come into play, the yield curve could steepen even further as moves in the Fed funds rate are influencing short - term rates, while macro factors are driving longer - term rates.

Now there are times that the yield curve is inverted because we are predicting a slowdown in the economy but I don't think, you know, here we are into the eighth year of economic expansion, ninth maybe, and it doesn't really seem to be any particular reason that that economic expansion is going to die any time soon, so the traditional inverted yield curve «we're about to go into recession» I don't see.

FRA: So do you still see a secular low in bond yields on the long into the yield curve remaining in the future sometime?

It was done by an intern of mine who is very highly qualified and it was written in July of 2004 titled, An Investigation into the Relationship between Changes in Yield Curve and the Performance of Stock Indices.

That is why I said, «Just Don't Invert the Yield Curve.»

The temptation to «ride the yield curve» must be great, and there is indeed evidence that banks have begun to load up on treasury debt (they must do something after all, and the private sector is out at the moment).

If 1995 did yield one pitching star other than Neagle it was closer Dan Miceli, who complements an above - average heater with a knuckle - curve.

Two years ago, Arturo Estrella, a Fed economist who has done extensive research into the predictive ability of the yield curve, was asked whether he thought the term spread still had its forecasting ability.

In 2001 when the smoothed yield curve flattened, but didn't invert, World EPS again declined by more than 10 percent.

I do know that the FOMC has only 1 % of tightening to play with before the yield curve gets flat.

Another way to say it is that if the short end of the Treasury yield curve falls dramatically, don't expect the yields corporate debt to follow suit to anywhere near the same degree.

There will be a lot of trading noise around the news, but after the dust clears, stocks and bonds won't have done much, and the yield curve will be a little wider.

If you purchased the IEF fund in 2003 you would be speculating on the change in the 7 - 10 year section, and only the 7 - 10 year section, of the yield curve (by the way, you would have done well since bond prices move inversely to bond yields).

They have historically done this by tightening so much that the yield curve inverts and the availability of credit becomes scarce.

Do they really want to flatten the yield curve when the long end is this low already?

Index investing doesn't require studying company balance sheets, writing call options, positioning yourself on the yield curve, or any of those other things that might make active investors sound smart.

This stems from the quantitative easing they have done, as well as their efforts to play God flatten the Treasury yield curve.

This means the government is financing itself at close to zero cost for its short term borrowing and, further out on the curve, the cost of financing does not go up by much; as the yield - to - worst on the S&P / BGCantor 7 - 10 Year U.S. Treasury Bond Index is now at 1.48 %.

Or does the steepening yield curve mean investors are worried about the deterioration in the U.S. fiscal outlook, or the potential for a collapse in the U.S. dollar as the Fed floods the world with newly minted currency as part of its quantitative easing program.

We do not believe that is likely to change soon and the steeping yield curve indicates continued expansion.