In addition, the present steep
yield curve makes borrowing cheap deposits and lending long - term at higher interest rates very profitable.
A flatter
yield curve makes profits from these transactions tougher to come by.
But we prefer shorter - duration Treasuries, as policy shifts that steepen global
yield curves make us cautious of longer - duration U.S. government bonds.
Several factors contributed to the change in expectations, including less supply of MBS to absorb due to a slow down in originations, a steep
yield curve making MBS an attractive investment, and the announcement that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will begin buying back about $ 200 billion in delinquent -LSB-...]
Not exact matches
Our alpha transmission process centers on
making key decisions across all four of our alpha pods — duration, sector allocation,
yield curve and currency.
Not sure how your two recommendations of reducing exposure and staying short the
yield curve are any different from my recommendations since those two are two of many recommendations I
make in this post.
On the short - side of the
yield curve, the consensus seems to interpret the Federal Open Market Committee's recent use of the word «gradual» as an indication that it will allow inflation to run higher than 2 % in order to
make up for the last 20 years of below - target growth.
As usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort of forecast, but to the extent that I
make any comments at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already high price / peak earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for market losses, particularly given that the current bull market has now outlived the median and average bull, yet at higher valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat
yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal divergence as measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weakness.
The eventual goal is to manage monetary policy aiming for a
yield curve that has a low positive slope, allowing the banks to
make a little money, but not a lot.
This
makes it particularly difficult for the
yield curve to invert, and arguably skews the probability of the risk of a recession lower.
In particular, the removal of the
yield floor for asset purchases, currently set at the deposit rate, would
make QE implementation much easier and the
curve steeper, especially if the ECB cuts rates more aggressively, but the Bundesbank seems reluctant to tolerate what could be viewed as indirect monetary financing.
Meanwhile, any QE expansion would
make the issue of core bond scarcity worse — we estimate that 45 - 50 % of the PSPP universe of German Bunds currently trade below the ECB's deposit rate, thus non eligible for QE, and contributing to a flattening of the German
yield curve.
But it had also
yielded a paradox: Gravity should
make the cosmos
curve inward and crash in on itself.
They tried to compensate by tuning their World engines for maximum HP and
yielded a peaky torque
curve, that
made the engines seem underpowered.
The chart below shows the average 12 - month returns in some of the industries that
make up the MSCI World Index - including Materials, Energy, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, and Consumer Staples - subsequent to different shapes of the global
yield curve.
During earnings season, investors worried about the impact of a flattening
yield curve on small cap banks, which
make up roughly 25 percent of the Russell 2000, according to Bloomberg data.
That would
make me queasy if I had a lot of money riding in the belly of the
yield curve, say 4 - 7 years out.
Beats me; the slope of the
yield curve today is adequate to allow banks to
make money; if the Fed waits at these levels, the economy should recover over the next two years.
Index investing doesn't require studying company balance sheets, writing call options, positioning yourself on the
yield curve, or any of those other things that might
make active investors sound smart.
From a sector perspective, energy, materials and financials
make up more than a third of the MSCI Europe Index.2 Many of these companies tend do well when inflation is rising and bond
yields are rising because typically inflation nudges up commodity prices and financial companies tend to profit when the
yield curve steepens.
It's very difficult to outperform the market, so prudent investors should look to employ valuable tools like the
yield curve whenever possible in their decision -
making processes.
The illustrative investment is
made in 5 - year zero - coupon bonds with
yield levels initially set by the Treasury
curve.
Interpreting the slope of the
yield curve is a very useful tool in
making top - down investment decisions.
Because
yield curves have historically offered good indications for economic changes, reflecting the bond market's consensus opinion of future economic activity, levels of inflation and interest rates, they can help investors
make a wide range of financial decisions.
In this article, we'll discuss short - term versus long - term interest rates, the
yield curve and how to use the study of
yields to your advantage in
making a broad range of investment decisions.
The
yield curve is best used to
make general interest rate forecasts, rather than exact predictions.
The flattening of the bond
yield curve in recent years meant you might pay only 1 % or 1.5 % more to lock in a long - term rate, and that
made the stability of fixed rates much more attractive than it was five years earlier.
The banks can easily
make money with a
yield curve that steep... not much money, but enough to keep them alive (the financial sector would shrink under these rules).
Bonds How to
Make Money From Bonds Utilizing a bond ladder while paying attention to the
yield curve can help you create a portfolio for achieving your financial goals
The fund will
make asset allocation decisions based on two driving factors: the 200 day moving average for the S&P 500 index as well as the bond
yield curve.
The eventual goal is to manage monetary policy aiming for a
yield curve that has a low positive slope, allowing the banks to
make a little money, but not a lot.
Bernanke inverted the
yield curve, banks took more credit risk to compensate, worst loans were
made then.
Now, anyone that does work on the Treasury
yield curve knows that the US government
made life tough when they withdrew the 30 - year back in 2001.
Well, now they will have to bear that expense, and yes, as Daniel points out, that will
make the muni
yield curve steepen.
Though in the long run investors in First Marblehead will likely
make money, the short run may end up being very rocky with potential cancellations on the horizon and a flat
yield curve.
It has absolutely depressed rates on the long - end of the
yield curve, which
makes it cheaper for businesses, individuals, and governments to borrow for periods of up to 30 years.
By holding short - term interest rates near 0 %, the Fed has effectively
made it impossible for the
yield curve to invert.
A wide
yield curve would give surviving banks the ability to
make profits and heal themselves (sound familiar?).
Pre-2008, the Fed controlled only the short end of the
yield curve, which, with time, is a pretty powerful tool for
making the economy rise and fall.
Summarizing, it still seems prudent to limit maturities to about 15 years, since absolute
yields are still below levels that would
make longer - term TIPS a compelling buy regardless of the shape of the
yield curve.
Additionally, as short - term interest rates fall faster than long - term rates, banks benefit from a more favorable
yield curve; essentially, they pay short - term rates on customers» deposits and charge long - term rates on loans,
making the combination of low short - term rates and relatively higher long - term rates very beneficial for their net interest income.
This
makes banks to lend (as on a steeper
yield curve banks
make more profits and it is worth the risk of lending) to value companies helping value companies to
make more profits and expand.
The Kunsthalle Basel had The Long Walls (2013), two gallery - spanning openwork walls
made of 20 - foot metal studs insterted into tracks on the top and bottom and strapped to sprinkler pipes to
yield a gradual
curve.
My choice was
made in such a way to
yield to a low relative error and a good correspondence between the
curves during the pre-industrial era.