This is the why we were in larger - cap funds and shorting small - cap stocks: because this would have created a nice lower risk return in a low
yield environment not tied to rate fluctuations with limited stock market downside as you earn the gap between these two performance streaks.
Not exact matches
Second, while it makes sense that an
environment in which investments, like government debt, are
yielding a smaller return might cause people to spend less today in order to make their retirement goals, there just isn't a lot of evidence that this happens in the real world.
Historically, the economy does
not perform well in an
environment in which the
yield curve inverts.
«In the current
environment, although inflation appears to be increasing, it's still
not likely to cause 10 - year
yields to rise to levels that would be problematic for equities.
It's
not easy for income - seeking investors to find attractive
yield in today's slow growth economic
environment.
I've long noted that the analysis of market action can help to overcome some of this frustration, as stocks have often provided good returns despite rich valuations so long as market internals were strong, and the
environment was
not yet characterized by a syndrome of overvalued, overbought, overbullish, and rising
yield conditions.
But cash isn't such a bad thing in a rising rate
environment as the
yield pick up rather quickly on money market accounts or you can roll some of that over into higher
yielding short - term bonds.
I also came to the conclusion that paying «experts» 1 % per annum was simply
not cost effective in the current extreme low
yield environment, so decided that I would try and learn as much as I could about making my own investment decisions.
Cash
yields are much lower today than they were back then so it's
not exactly the same
environment but if / when rates do eventually rise cash will actually be a decent holding.
Market returns are beyond our control, but having an answer to all
environments, even if that answer doesn't immediately
yield positive returns, is a very liberating feeling.
Moreover, bond
yields didn't remain on their upward trajectory making it particularly difficult for financials to perform in this kind of
environment.
Part of the reason why elevated valuation multiples have
not yielded to gravity may be that they are inadequate metrics for today's
environment.
-- Income more difficult to provide clients, in a zero rate
environment many will suggest high
yield corporate bonds and leveraged loans to supplement traditional fixed income but many clients are
not willing to sacrifice quality for a higher
yield.
These should signal rising
yields — but history may
not be a great guide for us in this
environment.
It doesn't mean that we won't experience inflation or higher bond
yields at times, but we're likely to live in a low -
yield environment for a very long while.
On that occasion Australian bond
yields rose significantly more than those in the US, reflecting market concerns that Australia would
not be able to maintain control over inflation in an
environment of strong global expansion.
I do think there is merit in looking at general rates (we likely won't return to the rate
environment of the early 1980's for example), but I wouldn't be getting excited about stock prices at these levels for the sole reason that bond
yields are really low.
Ensuring that hot - hand fallacy, cognitive dissonance, and confirmation bias are
not disproportionately leading a portfolio's overall allocations astray may become increasingly important as the current low -
yield environment evolves.
Yet, recent research has
yielded results that these views might
not be entirely accurate in today's
environment.
As for changing schools, we have found that sometimes a new
environment can
yield a different response since there is no history of
not talking there.
In 2004, Paul Epstein of Harvard Medical School's Centre for Health and the Global
Environment, and James McCarthy of Harvard University, claimed: «We are already observing signs of instability within the climate system -LSB-...] there is no assurance that the rate of greenhouse gas build up will
not force the system to oscillate erratically and
yield significant and punishing surprises.»
«If you grow lines of wheat that are
not adapted to a specific
environment, you will
not get a very high
yield.»
«We've provided the missing physical explanation of how and why chemical mixing works, and shown convincingly that the chemical mixing process is very general and rapid even in an
environment which did
not yield a star cluster, like the one where the Sun must have formed,» said Krumholz.
This may
not have been the best
environment for Picasso, but it'll
yield much better results than trying to paint a portrait with a power drill and a lawnmower.
At this initial stage, the research hasn't produced data to suggest which settings
yield higher - quality experiences, but the early findings highlight the importance of understanding what makes for a stimulating learning
environment in the informal, home - based settings where younger children spend more of their time.
But some things haven't changed — investors are still challenged by the seemingly never - ending search for
yield in an
environment of potential rising interest rates.
Bond
yields are low because nominal growth is remarkably weak,
not a great
environment for corporate earnings.
Still, in a low -
yield environment, that's
not half bad and it's better than the current
yield on the 10 - year Treasury.
We would
not be the first to point out that there has been a rush toward safer, defensive stocks that are less - cyclical stocks and a rush toward bond substitute stocks like REITs, MLPs, etc., as investors search for
yield in a declining interest rate
environment.
The flexible
yield strategy certainly has the ability to take aggressively stance on interest rates so we could think that maybe under a certain
environment it's attractive to take a lot of interest rate risk but that type of
environment hasn't been around for long time.
The concern here is that ultra low
yielding bonds can't decline sustainably below 0 % and are therefore unlikely to provide much downside protection in the future whereas
environments like the 2008 financial crisis and before offered investors far more protection because
yields were higher.
Cornerstone Value Fund Manager Brian Peery discusses the Fund's focus on high dividend -
yielding stocks and why he doesn't believe a rising rate
environment will affect companies» ability to maintain or increase dividends.
It would seem that investors are perhaps chasing
yield in the current extremely low -
yield environment, but
not other measures of relative value.
You could argue that in this
environment where a «high
yield» savings account is around 1 %, having your money at 0.25 % doesn't make much of a difference.
Those investors usually increase their bond holdings to reduce risk in their portfolios, but doing so in the current low -
yield environment means risking
not having enough income in retirement along with reduced prospects for capital appreciation.
I also came to the conclusion that paying «experts» 1 % per annum was simply
not cost effective in the current extreme low
yield environment, so decided that I would try and learn as much as I could about making my own investment decisions.
In Part I of our three - part series on investing for retirement income in low - rate
environments, we explained why we don't advise bulking up on dividend -
yielding stocks as a reliable way to generate retirement cash flow.
As we've discussed in the first two parts of this three - part series, we do
not recommend turning to dividend -
yielding stocks or high -
yield («junk») bonds to buttress your retirement income, even in low -
yield environments.
I do think there is merit in looking at general rates (we likely won't return to the rate
environment of the early 1980's for example), but I wouldn't be getting excited about stock prices at these levels for the sole reason that bond
yields are really low.
Regarding the inverted
yield curve, the falling rates
environment sounds logical, but it doesn't explain the early part of this decade when the
yield on the ten - year went from over 6 % down to under 4 %.
Not only were they relying on continued growth in real estate prices, but they were reaching for
yield in a low
yield environment.
Sam states that «You do
not buy REITs and dividend
yielding stocks in a rising interest rate
environment.»
While say, a 3.5 %
yield may
not seem like much when you're used to the context of 2 - 3 % inflation, if you're in a -3 % deflationary
environment, that's a risk - free «real» 6.5 %
yield per year which is unheard of.
Gold prices have come well off their highs, Treasury
yields keep dropping (although the
yield curve isn't flat enough to signal a «definitive» deflationary
environment out into the future), and even Federal Reserve officials are hinting at fears of deflation.
Since the low
yield environment is here to stay — the banks will soon realise that undercutting is
not the way to go.
Underperformance of the HYLV index from carry and spreads in a spread - tightening
environment is
not surprising, given its lower
yield profile and more defensive positioning of credit risk than the benchmark.
You don't really need much growth to make a 6 % +
yield worth the stretch in this
environment.
I don't look at
yield as an important guide to future total return in an
environment like this.
In a nutshell Cook argues that in this low -
yield, rising - costs
environment, investors can't afford to avoid equities and the higher growth potential they offer.
Thus
not only does the incentives of some participants to «search for
yield» increase in a low rate
environment, but also asset prices can spiral upwards, creating the conditions for a sharp and messy realignment.