This unfortunately dismisses the central lesson to be drawn from the awkward transition that resulted from my 2009 decision to stress - test our methods against Depression - era data, not to mention the fact that concerns similar to my present ones were rather stunningly vindicated over the completion of prior market cycles. (hussmanfunds.com)
The central lesson was not that overvalued, overbought, overbullish extremes are irrelevant, but that in the face of zero - interest rates, one had to wait for market internals to deteriorate explicitly before adopting a hard - negative outlook. (hussmanfunds.com)
The central lesson from our challenging transition between my 2009 stress - testing decision and mid-2014 (when we completed that transition) is this: some observable data — specifically market internals, credit spreads, and other risk - sensitive measures — are informative about what is currently in that black box. (hussmanfunds.com)