«Long term», since we are concerned here with climate time scales, means many decades. (judithcurry.com)
However, on climate time scales there has not been detection (much less attribution) of increasing disasters (intensity or frequency) to human - caused climate change (rogerpielkejr.blogspot.ru)
If annual or decadal time scale events like ENSO are governed by low dimensional chaos, couldn't there also be longer time scale phenomenon that are chaotic but also relevant on the climate time scale? (hannahlab.org)