Browsing the cognitive science journals online, I found a study suggesting that people regularly misapprehend the nature and effects of perturbation: Peter A. White, «Naive analysis of food web dynamics: a study of causal judgement about complex physical systems,» in Cognitive Science; abstract at: (realclimate.org)
That is why supercomputers are revolutionizing our understanding of complex physical systems. (discovermagazine.com)
My own view is that consciousness is an emergent property of a complex physical system. (discovermagazine.com)