In fact the non feedback sensitivity is close to the IPCC value, though our calculation is for a very idealized coupled climate system - but the simulated temperature profile are similar with profile of the observed Earth climate. (judithcurry.com)
Blackport, R. & Kushner, P. J. Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea ice loss in the coupled climate system. (nature.com)
Annual or seasonal climate forecasts are difficult because they rely on the oecans behaving predictably — which sometimes they do (i.e. during ENSO events), but mostly they are part of the coupled climate system and so have «weather» as well. (realclimate.org)