The IPCC based the lowered bound on one narrow line of evidence: the slowing of surface warming during the past decade — yes, the faux pause. (scientificamerican.com)
The «faux pause» could buy the planet a few extra years beyond that date to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and avoid the crossover — but only a few. (scientificamerican.com)
The IPCC's lower bound for ECS, in other words, probably does not have much significance for future world climate — and neither does the faux pause. (scientificamerican.com)