That results in the data maximum likelihoods for direct and indirect aerosol forcing being in the upper tails of the priors, biasing the aerosol forcing estimation to more negative values (and hence biasing ECS estimation to a higher value). (realclimate.org)
Observed warming is consistant with published model hindcasts for this period (especially when difficulties with forcing estimation is accounted for). (skepticalscience.com)
Accordingly, the forcing estimation method relies upon a model exhibiting a fairly linear climate response, and hence having a climate feedback parameter (and an effective climate sensitivity) that does not vary with time (in addition to having a temperature response that is proportional to forcing). (climateaudit.org)