The improvement in forecasting error of 39 % for Model 6 compared to Model 2 shows how much, at best, a valuation - based model can reduce the error term. (researchaffiliates.com)
That is the thing to compare against the observed forecast error distribution after day zero. (judithcurry.com)
Third, fiscal policy must be prudent by including a reasonable amount of «insurance» to guard against forecast error and the impact of unforeseen events and necessary policy actions. (3dpolicy.ca)