A simple model is used to explore the effect of imposing an upper bound on future temperature change. (planet3.org)
> It has been argued recently that the combination of risk aversion and an uncertainty distribution of future temperature change with a heavy upper tail invalidates mainstream economic analyses of climate change policy. (planet3.org)
It is this background warming from the heat trapped by greenhouse gases that actually accounts for most of the predictability in future temperature change, said Michael Mann, a climate scientist at Penn State. (climatecentral.org)