If we take the difference between the POGA - H models (with ENSO constrained to follow historical data) and the HIST models, we see the estimated influence of ENSO on global temperature history: (tamino.wordpress.com)
I am not sure how anyone can look at James Hansen's graph of global temperature history in his 1988 presentation and say that there was a long term warming trend at that time. (realclimate.org)
[Nay - sayers] place little faith in climate models, and claim that the «hockey stick» picture of global temperature history is a «fraud» approaching the dimensions of cold fusion. (deepclimate.org)