The phrase "inflation surprises" means when the rate at which prices for goods and services rise is unexpectedly different or higher than what people were expecting. Full definition
Brief periods of inflation surprises are not out of the ordinary. (hussman.net)
The blue line in the chart below shows an advance decline line based on inflation surprises. (hussman.net)
I expect that a further decline in real yields would prompt us to reduce our holdings modestly, as it is doubtful that persistent inflation surprises will be a near - term outcome. (hussmanfunds.com)