This unprecedented warmth is mainly due to the large positive temperature anomalies in the Arctic Ocean and over the North American continents. (usclivar.org)
Although the model is clearly inclined towards positive temperature anomalies (so «a warm winter») in fact that should only be interpreted as no support for a cold weather scenario — because the NCEP skill mask only shows high likelyhood for the month of November [which is easy considering the observed warm start of the month]. (bitsofscience.org)
(Another high positive temperature anomaly can now be witnessed along the western coasts of West Africa — it is in fact a relatively cool Gulf Stream cutting through an remarkably warm North Atlantic.) (bitsofscience.org)