The conditional probability of a recession prior to the market falling below its 12 - month moving average was just 5 - 10 percent. (hussman.net)
While recession certainly does not appear imminent, the annual probability of recession for an economy that is not in the early stage of recovery is at least 20 percent. (larrysummers.com)
Chart 11 shows the cumulative probabilities of recession over a ten year horizon using two long - run cross-country GDP samples.5 (bis.org)