Future winter SST forecasts are projected linear trends with an added stochastic component derived from the empirical noise. (journals.plos.org)
This is why we decomposed the temperature data into a slow, non-linear trend line (shown here) and a stochastic component — a standard procedure that even makes it onto the cover picture of a data analysis textbook, as well as being described in a climate time series analysis textbook. (realclimate.org)
Those two effects (edge of the observed range, no stochastic component) add about 1C to the bottom range of the terminal distribution. (julesandjames.blogspot.ru)