Thus, it becomes important in their analysis to have views about general stock market levels. (mjwhitman.pressbooks.com)
Outside of stock market levels, there has been a notable increase in volatility. (ritholtz.com)
They simulate future U.S. stock mark return as a linear function of Cyclically Adjusted Price - to - Earnings ratio (CAPE, or P / E10), the ratio of current stock market level to average earnings over the last ten years, assuming P / E10 has a long - term average of 16.4 with noise (implying average annual return 10 % with standard deviation 20 %). (cxoadvisory.com)