Bottom line, you can't estimate sensitivity from the mean conditions today — you need to look at a climate change. (realclimate.org)
I suggest you look at at least one or two of the papers I linked estimating sensitivity from observations (rather than from models). (joannenova.com.au)
Is there a standard method for estimating the sensitivity of a bond ETF's price to interest rate changes? (money.stackexchange.com)