Co-author Peter Clark, an OSU paleoclimatologist, said that because current carbon dioxide, or CO2, levels are as high as they were 3 million years ago, «we are already committed to a
certain amount of sea level rise.»
«The influence of rising oceans is even greater than the
overall amount of sea level rise because of storm surge, erosion and inundation,» said Carlson, who studies the interaction of ice sheets, oceans and the climate system on centennial time scales.
That means it sinks into the deeper layers of the ocean, and the contrast between this warm water and the undersea ice canyons contributes an unknown but
substantial amount of sea level rise, said Josh Willis, an oceanographer at JPL in Pasadena, California.
The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in their 2007 review, somewhat reassuringly indicated that the
probable amount of sea level rise by the year 2100 will be 18 to 59 cm.
The rate of this sea level rise is important, and a big unknown at this point, since a 4 - foot sea level rise over the course of 200 years will be harder for coastal cities to adapt to compared to if the
same amount of sea level rise were to play out during, say, 900 years.
The statement, and the figure selection, emphasizes the noise in the sea level curve's first derivative, and glosses over the facts that (1) the rate always is positive in that period, and also the fact that (2) the
total amount of sea level rise over the last 114 years is comparable to the total amount over the previous two millennia.
If Sugden's team is correct,
that amount of sea level rise would be unlikely.
Climate change models have typically underestimated
the amount of sea level rise observed over the past century.
Other times, you might see that such and such volume of ice (km3) is equivalent to so many millimetres of sea level rise (sea level equivalent (SLE);
the amount of sea level rise on full melting of the ice).
The estimates of ice loss also helped them calculate
the amount of sea level rise contributed by the ice sheet prior to 1990 — a number missing from the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report because of the lack of direct observations.
So, an honest, intelligent, credible and inquiring mind can ponder this question: Can capitalism survive
that amount of sea level rise?
This would add to
the amount of sea level rise, but quantitative projections of how much it would add can not be made with confidence, owing to limited understanding of the relevant processes.
Below are charts showing
the amount of sea level rise measured over 120 - month intervals.
Regionally, climate models underestimate
the amount of sea level rise that occured, but do show reasonable agreement for interannual and multidecadal variability.
Reducing greenhouse gases will help reduce
the amount of sea level rise we will have to adapt to.
The thing to keep in mind is that
this amount of sea level rise is only by 2100 and that once set in motion it will continue past that — through 2200 - 2300 we could easily experience sea level rise in excess of five meters.
Without mitigating measures,
that amount of sea level rise would inundate significant areas of coastal cities including Miami Beach, New Orleans and New York.
And there are no historical records which indicate
the amount of sea level rise in the 20th century.
We don't know what the United States will look like far in the future, when such
an amount of sea level rise might be realized.