Sentences with phrase «cyclone intensity»

While the new formula, which accounts for both temperature and salinity, can be used to forecast tropical cyclone intensity in real time, it can also be applied to the results of climate modeling to provide scientists with a framework to evaluate changes in future tropical cyclone activity.

The Dvorak technique is a methodology to get estimates of tropical cyclone intensity from satellite pictures.

One of our main goals is to obtain input from forecasters and assist them in their preeminent role of predicting tropical cyclone intensity changes.

«Soap bubbles for predicting cyclone intensity?.»

The extension of maximum cyclone intensity scales Greg Lade proposes has long been embodied in the Modified Beaufort Scale employed by cruising sailors the world over:

More complex extremes are difficult to incorporate into scenarios for the following reasons: (1) high uncertainty on how they may change (e.g., tropical cyclones); (2) the extremes may not be represented directly in climate models (e.g., ice storms); and (3) straightforward techniques of how to incorporate changes at a particular location have not been developed (e.g., tropical cyclone intensity at Cairns, Australia).

«Our study is important because tropical cyclone intensity forecasts for several past hurricanes over the Caribbean Sea have under - predicted rapid intensification events over warm oceanic features,» said Johna Rudzin, a PhD student at the UM Rosenstiel School and lead author of the study.

Cyclone Center's primary goal is to resolve discrepancies in the recent global TC record arising principally from inconsistent development of tropical cyclone intensity data.

Sustained wind is typically used for measuring cyclone intensity, but damage is also related to wind gusts, which are measured over much shorter periods.

But it's too early to say how climate change may have already affected cyclone intensity in our region.

Efforts to modulate tropical cyclone intensities through climate stabilization policies have extremely limited potential to reduce future losses.

The decreasing Arctic ice cover and associated warming of the Arctic Ocean may also impact cyclone intensity and frequency.

Many previous studies» assertions about increases in global cyclone intensity were made without taking into account the quality of the data and have been largely dismissed.

RE # 150 The most important parameter is the maximum surface sustained wind when you are analysing the tropical cyclones intensity with the satellite pictures.

Having said that, similar changes in tropical cyclone detection also seem to have occurred for each of the other basins, e.g., Hoarau et al., 2012 (Abstract) suggest that incomplete satellite coverage during the 1980s and early 1990s led to an underestimation of cyclone intensity in the northern Indian Ocean basin.

Computer models suggest that deploying aerosols can have «an appreciable impact on tropical cyclone intensity,» writes William Cotton, an atmospheric scientist at Colorado State University.

Watterson, I.G., 2006: The intensity of precipitation during extratropical cyclones in global warming simulations: a link to cyclone intensity?

«Additionally, even if a relationship were to be found between trends in sea surface temperature and various measures of tropical cyclone intensity, this would not necessarily mean that the storms of 2004 or their associated damages could be attributed directly or indirectly to increasing greenhouse gas emissions.»

But global warming very definitely does affect the temperature of the tropical free troposphere, so it is not possible to conclude, as alas many have, that increasing SST per se means increasing tropical cyclone intensity (though it usually does signify more TC - related rain).

Over the rest of the tropics, however, possible trends in tropical cyclone intensity are less obvious, owing to the unreliability and incompleteness of the observational record and to a restricted focus, in previous trend analyses, on changes in average intensity.

As long as we're talking about extreme weather events and attribution... although Kerry Emanuel is usually the go - to guy for the study of increasing tropical cyclone intensity, his 2005 and 2011 (linked to above by Stefan) papers being the most cited, there is a limitation of scope in that only the North Atlantic basin is covered by these papers, AFAIK.

Last time the IPCC predicted «an increase of 10 to 20 % in tropical cyclone intensities» in Asia.

They incorporated the effect of climate change by modifying the parameters of the Gumbel distribution of cyclone intensity based on increases in tropical cyclone intensity derived from climate model results over a broad region characteristic of the location in question.

To determine changes in the characteristics of cyclone intensity, they prepared a climatology of tropical cyclones based on data drawn from a much larger area than Cairns locally.

For some extremes (e.g., tropical cyclone intensity), there are still data concerns and / or inadequate models.

This dry air from the coast of Africa can have impacts on tropical cyclone intensity and formation.

It's difficult to say what the trends are in cyclone intensity in the South Pacific, as only limited data are available since the 1980s.

[ISPM 2.3 b] The increase in tropical cyclone intensity is indeed confirmed in AR4, but there is no significant trend in frequency since the 1970s [AR4 3.8.3, FAQ 3.3, Table 3.8].

Two factors make it hard to detect GHG - related trends in tropical cyclone intensity, the authors say.

He added that researchers lack satellite tools that can systematically measure tropical cyclone intensity.

Another presenter at the session, Paul Chang, a project scientist who studies satellite ocean surface wind data at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Center for Weather and Climate Prediction in College Park, Md., said that the current method that is largely used by U.S. scientists in this area of research, known as the Dvorak technique, employs satellite imagery to estimate tropical cyclone intensity but is imprecise and subjective.

But it appears that aerosol effects on hurricane intensity are disproportionately stronger than their effects on the climate overall, because they reduce incoming sunlight while greenhouse gases act through longwave (infrared) terrestrial radiation, and changes in sunlight have a bigger influence on tropical cyclone intensity than changes in infrared radiation do.