«Radiative forcing [RF] can be related through a linear relationship to the global
mean equilibrium temperature change at the surface (delta Ts): delta Ts = lambda * RF, where lambda is the climate sensitivity parameter (e.g., Ramaswamy et al., 2001).
«Radiative forcing can be related through a linear relationship to the global mean
equilibrium temperature change at the surface (ΔTs): ΔTs = λ RF, where λ is the climate sensitivity parameter (e.g., Ramaswamy et al., 2001).»
Many palaeoclimate studies have quantified pre-anthropogenic climate change to calculate climate sensitivity (
equilibrium temperature change in response to radiative forcing change), but a lack of consistent methodologies produces awide range of estimates and hinders comparability of results.
Radiative forcing can be related through a linear relationship to the global
mean equilibrium temperature change at the surface (ΔTs): ΔTs = λRF, where λ is the climate sensitivity parameter.
Therefore
the equilibrium temperature change would be somewhat less than that approximated by simply removing the heat trasported by the THC.
Next, in order to convert his emissions forecast into a forecast for warming, he cites an exhibit (Table TS.5, page 66) in an IPCC technical summary that relates atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration to
equilibrium temperature change versus pre-industrial temperature, without mentioning the crucial fact that this is an equilibrium projection.
As with CO2, we calculate
the equilibrium temperature change by multiplying the change in radiative forcing by the climate sensitivity parameter (λ).
Observations and models indicate that
the equilibrium temperature change poleward of 70N or 70S can be a factor of two or more greater than the global average.