But if, in addition, global warming increases the variance of regional temperatures, then we increase the likelihood
of extreme heat waves by a lot.
In fact, from the bottom panel above we can see that the
more extreme the heat wave, the more global warming will have increased it's likelihood.
Using atmospheric data from the last 35 years, study author Daniel Horton, a Stanford University postdoc, and his colleagues found that persistent areas of high pressure in certain places were linked with
extreme heat waves in Europe, western Asia and eastern North America.
James Hansen, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, writes that the likelihood of
such extreme heat waves «was negligible prior to the recent rapid global warming.»
In other words, the overall trend of
US extreme heat waves was a decrease from the 1930's to the ice age scare of the 1970's, and then a return to levels still shy of those in the 1930's.
The study said that the world risks «cataclysmic changes» caused
by extreme heat waves, rising seas and depleted food stocks as it heads toward global warming of 4 degrees Celsius this century.
The goal was based on the broad recognition that exceeding this threshold would result in consequences, such as sea - level rise, food shortages, worsening storms and
extreme heat waves likely to outpace our civilization's adaptive capability.
Results also show that the percentage of global area affected by heat waves has increased in recent decades, and the probability of occurrence of extreme and
very extreme heat waves is projected to increase further in the coming years.
The findings, published in The Lancet, also reveal that deaths due to moderately hot or cold weather substantially exceed those resulting
from extreme heat waves or cold spells.
The city is marked by endless sunshine, sea breezes, and balmy evenings — but it's also the season when hotel rates spike,
extreme heat waves occur, and many small - business owners take weeks off.
One claim frequently heard
regarding extreme heat waves goes something like this:» Since this heat wave broke the previous record by 5 °C, global warming can't have much to do with it since that has been only 1 °C over the 20th century».
If the world warms by more than 2 degrees Celsius, many sensitive natural systems, such as coral reefs, are likely to be decimated, scientists say, and the effects of global warming
on extreme heat waves, heavy precipitation events, and other extremes are likely to be more pronounced.
These figures show National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis temperature and specific humidity anomaly distributions for the three largest,
most extreme heat waves in the NCEP record: (aâ $ «b) 2003, (câ $ «d) 2010, (eâ $ «f) 2012.
Hey Dogz bet you will have an air conditioner, still have a place to live and supplies of fresh drinking water when other places go under and are
suffering extreme heat wave conditions and drought.
While the blocking pattern associated with the 2010 event was unusually intense and persistent, its major features were similar to atmospheric patterns associated with
prior extreme heat wave events in the region since 1880, the researchers found.
Though the report still says, rightly, that any specific weather event can not be solely tied to climate change — be it the totally unseasonable snowfall that hit the Northeast this past weekend, the devastating flooding in Thailand, etc. — but that scientists now are 99 % certain that climate change will cause
more extreme heat waves, fewer extreme spells of cold weather, and more intense downpours.
The World Bank also warned when it released its report that «we're on track for a 4 °C warmer world [by century's end] marked
by extreme heat waves, declining global food stocks, loss of ecosystems and biodiversity, and life - threatening sea level rise.»
The number
of extreme heat waves has increased several-fold due to global warming [45]--[46], [135] and will increase further if temperatures continue to rise.
According to the index projections, under the worst climate scenario of temperature rise nearing 4.8 ⁰ C,
extreme heat waves will become the norm by the end of the century.
«Substantial proportions literally say that they believe global warming made specific extreme weather events worse, such as Harvey and Irma and Maria, such as wildfires out West, such as
the extreme heat wave that grounded planes in Phoenix.»
But unless such drastic action is taken in the next few years, we are headed for a very different world, one in which seas will rise by more than 5 metres over the coming centuries, and droughts, floods and
extreme heat waves will ravage many parts of the world (see «Rising seas expected to sink islands near US capital in 50 years «-RRB-.
Imagine sunbathing, picnic - ing, or camping in
an extreme heat wave.
A corporal of the Moscow Kremlin Guard helps another soldier on duty during
the extreme heat wave that hit during July 2010.
Beyond the long - term record, the past five years have been punctuated by extreme heat events around the globe, the most recent being
an extreme heat wave in India this summer that left 2,500 dead.
According to the latest science, in most cases (outside of
extreme heat waves) the connections between today's extreme weather events and human - driven climate change range from weak (hurricanes) to nil (tornadoes)-- and the dominant driver of losses in such events is fast - paced development or settlement in places with fundamental climatic or coastal vulnerability.
I've shown before that the typical European winter gets far more weather - attributed deaths than
the extreme heat wave of 2003, so it only stands to reason that GW is saving far more lives in Europe than it is taking, right?
Sarah Perkins, [11] a research fellow at the University of New South Wales» Climate Change Research Centre, has pointed to Australia's prolonged and
extreme heat waves in 2014 saying, «These warm conditions, particularly in spring, contributed to yet another early start to our bushfire season, and recent heat wave events have also contributed to heightened bushfire risk and poor firefighting conditions currently in South Australia.»
Above normal temperatures were, however, anticipated in climate models, though not
the extreme heat wave that occurred and which was driven primarily by the absence of rain.
The role of climate change in causing
extreme heat waves, drastic rainfall, negative impacts on human health and threatened food security have received more attention recently than megadrought.
These extreme heat waves in the United States and the Middle East are just the most recent headlines in a year that's been chock full of baking temperatures.
This new report, according to the New York Times, will assert that expected warming in this century will lead to wide - spread melting of land ice,
extreme heat waves, difficulty growing food and massive changes in plant and animal life, probably including a wave of extinctions.
While the 2003 heat wave was unusual in today's climate, 23 Europe is highly likely to face even hotter summers more often in coming decades.24 Scientists estimate that human activities have already at least doubled the risk of
an extreme heat wave.25