This means that the reliability of the long -
term hurricane record is dependent on who was measuring them, and how, at any given time.
It's possible that
historic hurricane records, which go back to the 1800s, are incomplete or have inaccurate information on wind speeds and size.
Although hurricane records date back more than a century, they have been gathered using techniques of varying accuracy, such that it is often hard to compare new data with old.
In short, the historical
Atlantic hurricane record does not provide compelling evidence for a substantial greenhouse warming - induced long - term increase.
While global mean temperature and tropical Atlantic SSTs show pronounced and statistically significant warming trends (green curves), the U.S.
landfalling hurricane record (orange curve) shows no significant increase or decrease.
The two now have continuous tree - ring
hurricane records for parts of the southeast dating back 227 years, from 1770 to 1997.
Part of the difficulty is «miserable» global
historical hurricane records, says Prof Kevin Trenberth from the US National Center for Atmospheric Research.
The largest of these smaller storms measures about 2,200 miles (3,500 km) across — twice as big as the
largest hurricane recorded on Earth, NASA officials said.
Since in nature the relationship should be relatively steady over a long period of time, one can conclude that before the mid-1940s, the Atlantic
major hurricane records were less likely to include those that did not strike the United States.
The
strongest hurricane recorded at sea, named Patricia, hit the south west of Mexico on Friday evening local time, though it calmed somewhat by Saturday.
The record
hurricane record shows no increase in the last 30 years when the IPCC say human CO2 was cause of climate change.
Hurricane Andrew, one of the most
destructive hurricanes recorded, was a Category 5 storm that struck Florida in 1992, killing 25 people and destroying 28,000 homes.
All that I can find from O'Brien on the web are repeated claims that a linkage of the historic
hurricane record going back to 1850 shows a recurring cycle, and that this explains everything.
Hurricane landfalling frequency is much less common than basin - wide occurrence, meaning that the U.S.
landfalling hurricane record, while more reliable than the basin - wide record, suffers from degraded signal - to - noise characteristics for assessing trends.
SAN FRANCISCO — Researchers digging into coastal mud along the Gulf of Mexico have compiled the first long -
term hurricane record.
There have been 40
hurricanes recorded in this area since 1930, with the largest being Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
Kevin Trenberth, a climatologist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, counters that
the hurricane records, although messy and full of confounding factors, can reveal long - term trends, particularly in the Atlantic.
Georgia Tech climatologist Peter Webster and others are looking at better ways to mine
the hurricane record by excluding the most heavily disputed data.
However,
the hurricane record has some peculiarities: hurricanes are highly confined structures, so you have to be at the right place at the right time to observe them.
As with all climate variables,
the hurricane record becomes increasingly uncertain when we go back in time.
In his letter, Landsea refers to the large body of evidence (ie more than just one study) supporting the consensus among hurricane researchers that is there is no detectable human signal in
the hurricane record.
It also extends
the hurricane record for the region by hundreds of years, back to the first century, he said.
Although reliable sea surface temperature records exist back to the mid-1850s,
hurricane records are less reliable.
Finally, one can ask when a large increase in Category 4 - 5 hurricanes, as projected by our earlier Bender et al. (2010) study, would be expected to be detectable in the Atlantic
hurricane records, if it occurred in the real world.
Chunzai Wang of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Sang - Ki Lee of the University of Miami, US, examined 150 years of
hurricane records and found a small decline in hurricanes making landfall in the United States as oceans warmed.