If current trends continue, the projected
increase in global temperature by the end of the twenty - first century will result in large negative impacts on humans and other life forms.
Does this imply that a 1.5
°C increase in global temperatures brings the same problems independent of the heat stored lower in the oceans or how much the ice caps have melted?
In particular, I focus on the likely «sensitivity» of the climate, which refers to the expected
increase in global temperatures in response to a doubling of CO2 from pre-industrial levels.
However, evidence shows that HFCs are some of the most potent greenhouse gases in the world, and are the fastest growing contributors to climate change, with an expected 0.5 degrees
Celsius increase in global temperature by the end of this century.
It is very likely that most of the observed
increase in global temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is due to human - induced increases in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere (IPCC 2007).
Scientists agree that even a small
increases in the global temperature lead to significant climate and weather changes, affecting cloud cover, precipitation, wind patterns, the frequency and severity of storms, and the timing of seasons.
The What We Know report further states that «according to the IPCC, given the current pathway for carbon emissions the high end of the «likely» range for the
expected increase in global temperature is about 8 ˚ F by the end of the century.
The problem with a 2 degree C
increase in global temperature does not lie with the rise in temperature itself, but with the fact that such a rise in temperature will engage positive feedbacks (e.g., the massive die off of the rainforest).
Whether we look at the
steady increase in global temperature; the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to the highest level in a half - million years; the march of warmest - ever years (9 of the10 hottest on record have occurred since 2000); the dramatic shrinking of mountain glaciers and Arctic sea ice; the accelerating rise in sea level; or the acidification of our oceans; the tale told by the evidence is consistent and it is compelling.
To have periods of a decade or even longer when there is no significant
net increase in global temperature, despite a continuing long - term warming trend, is not in the least surprising — in fact it's expected.
Langcake offers the counter-influence of sulfate and other aerosols as a reason why
greater increases in global temperatures predicted by some models failed to materialize — a theory backed by work at the Hadley Centre in Great Britain, but warns that may just represent tinkering with the climate model to make it square with the historical record.