An observed consequence of higher water vapor concentrations is the increased frequency
of intense precipitation events, mainly over land areas.
Along with the risk of drying, there is an increased chance
of intense precipitation and flooding due to the greater water - holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere.
The increase in temperatures, the editorial said, «will be accompanied by rising sea levels,
more intense precipitation events in some countries and increased risk of drought in others and adverse effects on agriculture, health and water balance.»
• Increases in very hot days and heat waves, • Increases in Arctic temperatures, • Rising sea levels, • Increases
in intense precipitation events, and • Increases in hurricane intensity
Groisman et al. [Changes in
Intense Precipitation over the Central United States] found trends in extreme precipitation in the south - central United States.
Flood surges such as this one are typically triggered by a «
very intense precipitation event,» said Matthew Kelsch, a meteorologist with the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) in Boulder, Colo..
And since more moisture reduces the adiabatic lapse rate, the cooling with altitude would be lower, the upper troposphere would warm even faster than the surface, and one might therefore expect
less intense precipitation at the equator, and more moisture carried polewards.
Heavier and more
intense precipitation nationwide, compounded by urban development, is projected to lead to more frequent and severe flooding by the end of century.
«Even though California historically has periods of dry and wet years, there isn't an analog for climate extremes like the ones we've observed in recent years, such as those record - breaking prolonged periods of drought following by periods of
intense precipitation pulses that cause flooding,» Woodburn said.
Flash floods occur in small and steep watersheds and waterways and can be caused by short -
duration intense precipitation, dam or levee failure, or collapse of debris and ice jams.
Cold days (daily maximum temperature below the 10th percentile) occur together
with intense precipitation more frequently during spring and summer.
In particular, over NH land, an increase in the likelihood of very wet winters is projected over much of central and northern Europe due to the increase in
intense precipitation during storm events, suggesting an increased chance of flooding over Europe and other mid-latitude regions due to more intense rainfall and snowfall events producing more runoff.
«The models show most areas around the world will experience more
intense precipitation for a given storm during this century,» said lead researcher Gerald Meehl of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).
Basic theory, climate model simulations, and empirical evidence all confirm that warmer climates, owing to increased water vapor, lead to
more intense precipitation events even when the total annual precipitation is reduced slightly (Trenberth et al. 2007).
Recent observed changes in precipitation have been even greater than the changes projected by climate models.10 Even with their limitations, current models still capture the physical processes associated with the observed increases
in intense precipitation.
Aadar was problematic, the herders told Goulden, because
its intense precipitation fell on small areas, eroding the soil and spilling off the steppe faster than it could be absorbed.
These shifts may include rising sea levels, stronger tropical cyclones, the loss of soil moisture under higher temperatures, more
intense precipitation and flooding, more frequent droughts, the melting of glaciers and the changing seasonality of snowmelt.
However, given the right conditions,
these intense precipitations reach the centre of the Peninsula.
An increase of
intense precipitation events has been found on much of the world's land area [127]--[129].
OK - this is off topic and I know comments like this invoke just the hysteria I don't want to incite from skeptics, but are the weather patterns we are seeing in Iowa (
intense precipitation) consistent with what one would expect from warming predictions?
If it is extreme wet, it is 100 % proof of AGW as warmer air can hold more water, hence more
intense precipitation.
The warm moist air is readily advected onto land and caught up in weather systems as part of the hydrological cycle, where it contributes to more
intense precipitation events that are widely observed to be occurring (IPCC 2007; Trenberth 2011a; Groisman and Knight 2008; Min et al. 2011; Pall et al. 2011).
Our warming world is, according to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, increasing heat waves and
intense precipitation in some places, and is likely to bring more extreme weather in the future.
In weather systems, convergence of increased water vapor leads to more
intense precipitation and the risk of heavy rain and snow events, but may also lead to reductions in duration and / or frequency of rain events, given that total amounts do not change much.
The United States is facing increasingly frequent and
intense precipitation events and ever higher damages from flooding each year due to climate change and urbanization.
Unless communities adapt,
intense precipitation will cause greater stormwater runoff, agricultural runoff, and sewer system overflows that threaten water quality and public health.
Enrico Scoccimarro, Silvio Gualdi, Gabriele Villarini, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Ming Zhao, Kevin Walsh, Antonio Navarra,
Intense Precipitation Events Associated with Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in Response to a Warmer Climate and Increased CO2.
Intense precipitation events are expected to continue to become more frequent.
A better understanding of the relationship between changes in total precipitation and
intense precipitation events has been achieved since the SAR.
However, the report does say it is very likely that there will be more
intense precipitation events over many areas, and that peak winds and rainfall rates from hurricanes are also likely to be higher.
As the climate has warmed, some types of extreme weather have become more frequent and severe in recent decades, with increases in extreme heat,
intense precipitation, and drought.