I mentioned over the weekend that Shape is the type of film that can
win on a preferential ballot by virtue of garnering an overwhelming tally of first - place votes, ending the contest in the first round of counting.
Others will say that the film's loss to The Shape of Water at the PGA Awards is proof it can't
perform on a preferential ballot and that Guillermo del Toro's sterling fairytale is the actual frontrunner.
««Lady Bird» is an out - on - a-limb hunch based on two things: The academy has split on picture and director four times in the last five years, and I expect it to
kill on the preferential ballot.»
The Shape of Water — del Toro's romantic, funny, timely, engaging ode to cinema — bested its
competitors on a preferential ballot last night at the PGA, where the 7000 or so of them somehow landed that film with the most votes.
Get Out is the Movie of the Moment, so clearly and incisively dissecting the fallacy of a «Post-Racial World,» and it is so universally loved that it is bound to be
successful on a preferential ballot.
Looking ahead, I still don't think Three Billboards can perform
well on a preferential ballot, but what's interesting is that The Shape of Water might.
When you add the divisiveness of the film and its «take on race» backlash (which may or may not invade voters» choices) you have a film that can not win
on a preferential ballot.
That could make it hard to win
on preferential ballot, though that will not stop Guillermo del Toro from winning and right now, it feels like Best Director is down to del Toro and Christopher Nolan if there is a split.
If The Shape of Water wins the PGA, that sets it up to be like La La Land last year — showing it can win
on a preferential ballot and is also expected to win the DGA.
It was also the year that the Oscar race for Best Picture made the leap from five on a weighted ballot to ten
on a preferential ballot.
I'm going to stick with my season - long hunch that Three Billboards is too divisive to win
on a preferential ballot, even though it has so many backers.
But then again, it's not a film that normally can win
on a preferential ballot.
With The Revenant, it didn't have the SAG ensemble stat, so I was not sure it could win
on a preferential ballot.