However, as Hansen notes, empirical estimates of climate sensitivity
based on paleoclimate data are consistent with the sensitivity in climate models of approximately 3 °C for doubled atmospheric CO2.
They suggested this based
on paleoclimate data from the Eemian period, when one degree of warming seems to have done just that.
«Our study has found evidence to the contrary, suggesting that in fact, the future long - term trend based
on paleoclimate reconstructions is likely towards diminishing precipitation, with no relief in the form of increased Mediterranean storms, the primary source of annual precipitation to the region, in the foreseeable future.»
Steve McIntyre was another Expert Reviewer who made a large number of detailed criticisms on the Working Group 1 report, specifically
on the paleoclimate chapter (Chapter 6).
Based
on the paleoclimate record from ice and ocean cores, the last warm period in the Arctic peaked about 8,000 years ago, during the so - called Holocene Thermal Maximum.
:) I want to think about this more, and I'll read Michel's paper (and the PALEOSENS
paper on paleoclimate sensitivity) before saying much else, but I'll say now that part of my confusion has been trying to think of sensitivity within the traditional units of X degrees per CO2 doubling.
The award is well - deserved for many reasons, including but not limited to pioneering
work on paleoclimate, a very productive scientific output, and for aplomb in spite of being a «lightning rod» for personal attacks from anti-science forces.
The MBH98 and MBH99 papers are focused
on paleoclimate temperature reconstruction and conclusions therein focus on what appear to be a rapid rise in global temperature during the 1990s when compared with temperatures of the previous millennium.
But the most critical point to remember, if you are concerned about this for its impact on the validity of AGW theory, is that the fight is over a single study, published eight years ago,
focused on paleoclimate.
Actually, there is not a good open access option for most of my work, as I have grumbled before, what with the EGU climate journal focussing
specifically on paleoclimate.
Starting in 2005, building on a sequence of events seeking to obtain raw data, leading ultimately to the FOIA events central to the CRU controversy, McIntyre builds an iconoclastic website which at least implicitly supports the false propositions that climate change concerns rest primarily
on paleoclimate evidence and that paleoclimate evidence is systematically skewed.
Reliance can not be placed
on paleoclimate proxy - based estimates of ECS — the AR4 WG1 report concluded (Box 10.2) that uncertainties in Last Glacial Maximum studies are just too great, and the only probability density function (PDF) for ECS it gave from a last millennium proxy - based study contained little information.
Based
on paleoclimate trends, scientists are putting the odds of the U.S. Southwest sliding into a decades - long megadrought at around 50/50.
«Applying the same technique to other subglacial volcanos will provide new constraints
on paleoclimate models that consider the extents and timing of planetary glaciations.»
The Zambian and Tanzanian fossil beds preserved both plants and animals, which is unusual, and provides
information on paleoclimate before and after the extinction.
- I don't study tree rings at all, so this will be quite naive, but I took a
class on paleoclimate (actually with one of your old office - mates, Mathias Vuille) discussing the standarization procedure and why this tends to remove some of the low - frequency variation, though we never got into quantitative detail.
Already when I was working as lead
author on the paleoclimate chapter of the 4th IPCC report more than a decade ago, some of the discussions within IPCC revolved around us paleoclimatologists regarding some risks as considerably more serious than the colleagues specializing in the modern climate, such as the risk of rapid sea level rise or instability of ocean currents and ice sheets.
Proxy data, ratonal behind the models, how they have improved and some
issues on paleoclimate are all covered.
Quaternary Science Rev., 26, 37 - 55, doi: 10.1016 / j.quascirev.2006.07.013)-- there's just no doubt about it, these astronomical cycles are clearly
imprinted on paleoclimate data.
Comments
Off on Paleoclimate + genetic study confirms: Arctic species adapted to sea ice changes
A useful gauge of the impact of a change of a few degrees in global mean temperature can be found in Tom Crowley's
article on paleoclimate in this issue of CONSEQUENCES.
Abstract — # 309384 Title: Statistician's Perspective on Paleolimate Reconstruction Author (s): Roger Shores Companies: Address: Keywords: Paleolimate Reconstruction; Hockey stick Abstract: This talk focuses on Statistician's Perspective on Paleolimate Reconstruction, which lead to the Congressional
hearing on Paleoclimate and the Hockey stick.
So if you could then bring all these together — parts per millions, the global forcing and sea - level rise — based
on the paleoclimate record, which is, kind of, the really more a recent data that the new view is built on.
Wegman References to Bradley The section in dispute is section 2.1 of the Wegman Report entitled «
Background on Paleoclimate Temperature Reconstruction».
This report is an attempt to describe what is known about abrupt climate changes and their impacts, based
on paleoclimate proxies, historical observations, and modeling.
Anyway, the papers I mentioned included recent Hansen and Sato
paper on paleoclimate and future warming where they argued that since the Eemian was less than one degree warmer (GAT) than today and had 4 - 6 meters higher sea levels, the set 2 degree limitation for future warming was too little.