For that insight and effort the planet is rewarded with years
of ozone recovery and a comfort that a disaster was avoided by a global awareness and response.
In their prediction of future climate, many IPCC models did not consider the
expected ozone recovery and its potential impacts on climate change.
The researchers find that long - lasting compounds still dominate the outlook
for ozone recovery.
This report found that phasing out the small remaining uses of ODSs, which are currently exempted from phase - outs, would hasten
ozone recovery by about 11 years.
We determine its likely evolution for three intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) special report on emission scenarios (SRES) for austral summer and winter, using a multi-model ensemble of IPCC fourth assessment report models which resolve
stratospheric ozone recovery.
Their projections show that continued dichloromethane increases at the average trend observed from 2004 - 2014 would
delay ozone recovery over Antarctica by 30 years.
Projections are shown to be statistically different from the aforementioned results, highlighting the importance of
ozone recovery in governing SAM - evolution.
It's taken 30 years, but scientist have finally ascertained measurable evidence of
ozone recovery over Antarctica.
On top of the additional contraction expected
from ozone recovery, this suggests that the rapid pace of Hadley Cell expansion observed since 1980 will likely not be maintained through the first half of the 21st century.
Shindell, D.T., and V. Grewe, 2002: Separating the influence of halogen and climate changes
on ozone recovery in the upper stratosphere.
Short - lived substances, on the other hand, will have a minimal effect on delaying
ozone recovery because they are more likely to degrade before reaching the stratosphere, she said.
The time lag between the CFC ban and the start of
ozone recovery revealed by the new data is due to the slowness of the cycle involved.
Since 1996 the trend is slightly positive [37] due to
ozone recovery juxtaposed to a cooling trend of 0.1 K / decade that is consistent with the predicted impact of increased greenhouse gases.
Polvani and Son state that more research needs to be conducted to validate their results, and to fully understand how
complete ozone recovery will impact the planet's changing climate.
Austin J. and N. Butchart, 2003: Coupled chemistry - climate model simulation for the period 1980 to 2020: ozone depletion and the start
of ozone recovery, Q. J. R. Meteorol.
«
Ozone recovery may be delayed by unregulated chemicals: Recent increases in an unregulated ozone - depleting substance, could delay recovery of Antarctic ozone levels by 5 - 30 years, depending on emissions scenarios.»
The trend was interrupted following international agreements (Montreal Protocol and its Amendments signed 30 years ago in 1987) on the reduction of ozone - depleting substances, and the first signs of
ozone recovery were seen by satellites.
During the period of summer
ozone recovery (2000 — 2050), the SAM index exhibits weakly negative, statistically insignificant trends due to stratospheric ozone recovery which offsets the positive forcing imposed by increasing GHG concentrations.
We also examine the influence of
ozone recovery by comparing results to models that exclude stratospheric ozone recovery.
«The signature of
ozone recovery is not quite there yet,» she said, adding that day will come, but we may have to wait until the 2030s.
Then, as supported by
the ozone recovery research, all that's left is to let to earth respond and heal by its own processes.
The trend of greater and greater depletion of global stratospheric ozone observed during the 1980s and 1990s is no longer occurring; however, it is not yet clear whether these recent changes are indicative of
ozone recovery.
Nature has made an important contribution to clearing up widespread misunderstanding that the ozone layer problem has been «fixed» by pointing out that
ozone recovery will take place in a very different atmosphere from that which existed before the Montreal Protocol.
«You have sort of this tug - of - war between the jet being pulled equatorward during the summer because of
the ozone recovery and the greenhouse gases pulling the jet further poleward,» Grise said.
A reduction in halogen loading appears to have occurred recently (Montzka et al., 2003) as well as the beginning of
ozone recovery (e.g., Newchurch et al., 2003; Huck et al., 2005; Reinsel et al., 2005; Yang et al., 2005).
In contrast, predictions made by the chemistry - climate models indicate that, as a consequence of
ozone recovery — a factor largely ignored by IPCC models — the tropospheric winds in the Southern Hemisphere may actually decelerate in the high latitudes and move toward the equator, potentially reversing the direction of climate change in that hemisphere.