"Peak oil" refers to the point in time when the production of oil reaches its maximum level and then starts to decline gradually. It indicates the moment when we reach the highest amount of oil we can extract and use globally. The concept suggests that as oil reserves diminish and become harder to extract, it may lead to challenges in meeting global energy demands.
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The author also shows little understanding of the concept
of peak oil by pointing out how much oil is left.
I will however, turn to one of the many experts
on peak oil to get his take on it.
Of course
with peak oil looming over us like an ominous black cloud, some are using this as an opportunity to push for more domestic drilling too.
If he had any authority, wouldn't in be
in peak oil instead.
However, for someone concerned
by peak oil or energy security it is as likely to be an «and» as an «or».
Even
if peak oil arrives later, his comments and recommendations are well worth keeping in mind as we see the energy landscape change over the coming years.
This article uses historical cases from countries that have gone through a similar experience as the best available analytical strategy to understand what will happen if the predictions of
peak oil theorists are right.
Many bright minds inside the industry think we are already
at peak oil.
In addition, various studies suggest that we have
reached peak oil production, or will very soon, meaning the gap between supply and demand will only grow larger.
However if petrol becomes expensive again, it is either tax or by the amounts available and we do not want to visit
peak oil do we?
That said, I also do not
think peak oil is an existential immediate crisis.
The solution to both the global warming and
peak oil problems is converting to renewable energy ASAP.
It will rapidly become very difficult to keep operational as we move more into the
post peak oil period.
And that danger stretches well
beyond peak oil — everyone who wants to make the world a better place would do well to remember that the future is not yet written.
Only 10 years later, when oil went to $ 147 / barrel the «experts» said oil will stay high or go even higher because we
passed peak oil.
All that matters to the average driver is the price and availability of fuel, and that will be, or already is to some degree, controlled by
political peak oil.
The consensus seems to be pretty strong that we have reached global
peak oil now or will very soon.
And I think it goes some way to explaining
why peak oil is such a compelling meme for many of us environmentalists.
That's just one example of
how peak oil will change our way of life.
Not only must we do it, but actually,
peak oil makes that much easier since renewable energy prices will actually be relatively lower, and continually increasing oil prices will spur innovation.
My point is things go to the complete unexpected...
Remember Peak oil that did not peak... or gold going to 5,000... When trend following do not have an opinion.
Even if you don't
understand peak oil production issues — or give damn — the discussions are wide - ranging, often quite technical, and extensive.
Obviously, not all of these ways to
mitigate peak oil have the same climate consequences (more on this below).
According to
peak oil experts, the amount of oil we will be able to consume will be reduced by around 9 - 10 % each year starting now.
I don't in any way intend this post to be a plea for compromise between those who believe in climate change,
peak oil etc, and those that don't.
With
peak oil looking increasingly imminent, we need to start the process of weaning ourselves off fossil fuels, and we need to do so urgently.
Climate models compare their models in the same way people
predicting peak oil compare their predictions.
It would give us some breathing room to fix the problem or maybe
let peak oil or new technology to reduce human CO2 input into the climate system.
Peak oil used to be about running out of supply; now some think that we will run out of demand.
If we wish to
handle peak oil and all the other problems facing humanity with dignity then we have to change.
Another thing is that I don't know any scenario in which we reach 6 °C with a
close peak oil.
I've more or less
ignored peak oil and assumed that many others have done likewise - am I wrong in this?
I never believed
in peak oil and I don't believe in this peak demand either.
Likewise,
if peak oil has not yet arrived, what I call the last oil shock certainly has.