In addition, there are option trading tools, such
as probability analysis, profit and loss graphs, as well as target zone tools.
Similar probability analyses have guided the public health responses to other threats that invariably involve uncertainty like the threats from tobacco, asbestos, lead and air pollution.
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Now, without going to the trouble of a
Baysian probability analysis (which would just be putting numbers to educated guesswork), I think there is good reason to consider the Russian Heatwave sufficiently improbable on the assumption of no warming (relative to its probability on the assumption of GW) that it is worth independant recognition as evidence of the warming globe instead of just being burried under a mob of other statistics.
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Do you really think that is scientifically wise when weighing the evidence in context of the supporting physics and
probability analysis?
In other words, you are picking on «high amplitude and persistent ridging» as the red herring (short term events) to distract from
the probability analysis (regarding the long term anomaly trend attributable to increased RF).
I do not have the data nor the capability to do a full modelling of it, nor of doing a Loss of Load (LLOP)
Probability Analysis.