The other issues contribute to the range of uncertainty
in projections of future warming projected by the IPCC and others, but this range does not include zero, a point which is agreed by most or all of those working on these topics as I've noted.
Decisions made today are made in the context of confident
projections of future warming with continued emissions, but clearly there is more to do to better characterize the human and economic consequences of delaying action on climate change and how to frame these issues in the context of other concerns.
The IPCC
model projections of future warming based on the varios SRES and human emissions only (both GHG warming and aerosol cooling, but no natural influences) are shown in Figure 6.
The quantitative contribution of CO2 to the ice age cooling and warming is fully consistent with current understanding of CO2's warming properties, as manifested in the IPCC's
projections of future warming of 3 ± 1.5 C for a doubling of CO2 concentration.
The IPCC model
projections of future warming based on the varios SRES and human emissions only (both GHG warming and aerosol cooling, but no natural influences) are show in Figure 5.
The quantitative contribution of CO2 to the ice age cooling and warming is fully consistent with current understanding of CO2's warming properties, as manifested in the IPCC's
projections of future warming of 3 ± 1.5 C for a doubling of CO2 concentration.
Combining the asylum - application data with
projections of future warming, the researchers found that an increase of average global temperatures of 1.8 °C — an optimistic scenario in which carbon emissions flatten globally in the next few decades and then decline — would increase applications by 28 percent by 2100, translating into 98,000 extra applications to the EU each year.
But the Panel does provide a way to make
its projections of future warming consistent with discussions about targets.
Where the uncertainty comes in, she said, is in
projections of future warming — which depend in part on the world's future greenhouse gas emissions, as well as scientists» understanding of the physics of warming and the biogeochemical cycles of the Earth.
However, the point of skeptics is, that no matter how you define it, if the modelers mistakenly attribute 80 % to CO2 when it is only responsible for 40 %, by whatever definition, then the modelers have their climate sensitivities to this particular forcing wrong, and
their projections of future warming are likely to be even more wrong.
That means that
projections of future warming are too high, that the entire global warming assumption is suspect, and that Gore should find something more productive to do with his time.
Their strategy relied on the idea that the models that are going to be the most skillful in
their projections of future warming should also be the most skillful in other contexts, such as simulating the recent past.
A very common misconception about climate change is that
projections of future warming are -LSB-...]
from a visual perspective, «panel b» seems to inspire less confidence in
our projections of future warming than «panel a» does.
In summary, there is little new about climate science in the report, and nothing at all new about attribution of past warming and extreme weather events to human activity,
projections of future warming and its effects, or potential for catastrophic changes.
The IPCC's
projections of future warming for a high emissions scenario (red) and one with «substantial and sustained» emissions cuts to limit warming to two degrees above preindustrial levels.
As he writes, the central premise underlying the study is that climate models that are going to be the most skilful in
their projections of future warming should also be the most skilful in other contexts like simulating the recent past.