Sentences with phrase «scenario uncertainty»

Based on results from large ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model, we show that internal variability alone leads to a prediction uncertainty of about two decades, while scenario uncertainty between the strong (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5) and medium (RCP4.5) forcing scenarios [possible paths for greenhouse gas emissions] adds at least another 5 years.

For scenario uncertainty (which the IPCC strategy arguably is, even though they don't seem to admit it), the strategy should be robustness: no regrets strategies that are win - win whether or not CO2 turns out to be a problem of the magnitude suggested by the IPCC.

I have argued previously that the uncertainty surrounding future climates is best characterized by scenario uncertainty, in the sense of modal logic whereby individual model simulations should be regarded as a modal statement of possibility:

The strategy used in the AR5 is appropriate in context of scenario uncertainty, where they identify some bounds for sensitivity, and present some assessment of likelihood (values less than 1C are extreme unlikely, and values greater than 6C are very unlikely).

The uncertainty monster paper distinguished between statistical uncertainty and scenario uncertainty: