A combination of circumstances makes model - based
sensitivity estimates of distant times and different climates hard to do, but at least we are getting a good education about it.
These two dominate the total uncertainty; reduce them by a factor of three, and
empirical sensitivity estimates will be good enough that public consensus become far more likely.
I also agree that its hard to understand how people can claim to derive
accurate sensitivity estimates for the last glacial maximum for example, given the large uncertainties.
Lewis and Curry arrive at their lower equilibrium climate
sensitivity estimate by using updated compilations of the earth's observed temperature change, oceanic heat uptake, and the magnitude of human emissions, some of which should cause warming (e.g., greenhouse gases), while the others should cool (e.g., sulfate aerosols).
The diagnosis of global radiative feedbacks allows better understanding of the spread of equilibrium climate
sensitivity estimates among current GCMs.
This shows that for some forcing agents Marvel et al.'s methodology does not correctly quantify forcing in GISS - E2 - R for recent decades of the Historical simulation, making its related efficacy and
sensitivity estimates very doubtful.»
Phrases with «sensitivity estimates»