There are endless uplifting pictures charting the triumph of
underdogs in various sports, with football being one of the most crowd - pleasing.
We can see that these presumed defensive struggles often times produce more points than anticipated, but what's really interesting is the production
of underdogs in these games.
Over the past season the Warriors have closed
as underdogs in just five of 98 games, all of which came on the road.
Even though we've already seen 30 +
point underdogs hit at a 73 % rate this season, there's no real reason to start fading them down the stretch.
That does happen sometimes, and it makes for the kind of
underdog stories that top bestseller lists and weekend box offices.
They are even more profitable when you focus
on underdogs against winning teams.
If you're a regular reader of this column, then you know how much I love BIG
underdogs at home.
But in the playoffs, small
home underdogs with a better home winning percentage than the foes away winning percentage are a strong bet.
It has been profitable to take
underdogs against teams with 60 % winning rate or better (97 + win pace) after the first month of the season.
In several articles, we have targeted the trend of betting on
underdogs with some «material level» of point spread.
Our sweet spot comes when we examine double - digit
road underdogs who are receiving no more than 25 % of spread bets.
While this percentage would not be high enough to turn a profit betting against the spread in football or basketball, it can be profitable
taking underdogs in hockey.
There will also be at least 4
big underdogs of at least 30 points on the spread.
I may not be the biggest sports fan in the world, but I have to admit I'm a sucker for a good
underdog sports movie.
Recently, I have dedicated significant time to discussing the value of contrarian favorites — i.e. fading
underdogs who are receiving the majority of public support.
Play
like underdogs for 70 minutes and hope to score while hoping they do not score.
In previous research, we noticed a slight bias towards visiting
underdogs when betting against the public in college basketball.
The first filter we used was very basic, looking exclusively at
underdogs receiving less than 49 % of spread bets at our contributing sportsbooks.
He doesn't know he's supposed to fail, and as a result has achieved more than anybody thought was possible — a
true underdog story in every aspect.
That edge is amplified when you focus on
large underdogs in games with low totals.
While everyone loves a
good underdog story, our reason for betting against the public has nothing to do with cheering for the little guy... and everything to do with value.
What's particularly compelling about this game is that double
digit underdogs have typically provided excellent value to bettors.
The film is the most eccentric of
underdog tales, and it makes no difference if you've seen The Room or not; you'll still laugh, maybe even cry.
In all of these games, the public is piling on top of the heavy favorite — potentially creating value for the
heavy underdogs.
As for value plays, I've got two home teams who I think take care of business as
small underdogs this weekend.
But a 2010 calendar front - loaded with contested primaries, combined with scores of vulnerable incumbents and both sides
playing underdog, means there's an extra dash of hot sauce this year.
And he reiterated that everything he «imagined» came to fruition, including his own
underdog campaign that was in fourth place but ultimately won in 2013.
In particular, we studied taking
underdogs getting at least 7 points, at various betting percentage thresholds.
Which
underdogs do you think will make the playoffs in 2017 - 18?
It's
where underdogs triumph and deep - seated traditions and beliefs change.
2005
saw underdogs perform poorly (favorites covered at more than a 57 % rate!).
It's not unusual to see amazing performances from
underdogs during this stage either.
It's a solid script, anchored by a
classic underdog story and the writers manage to elevate it above the sports genre and turn it into something universal.
The table below displays
how underdogs with high totals perform when we examine increasingly one - sided public betting.
While underdogs struggled, betting against the public proved to be a successful strategy.
In baseball, there are often systems with losing records because we take to
many underdogs with plus money.
But they're certainly the
clear underdogs, and they've fought through far more adversity in this season.
Without exaggeration, it could be the
greatest underdog story in the history of sports.
We've also repeatedly mentioned that
underdogs perform bettors in games with low totals while favorites perform better in games with high totals.
It's also important to realize that road teams receiving no more than 30 % of spread bets are almost
always underdogs.