Our sweet spot comes when we examine double - digit
road underdogs who are receiving no more than 25 % of spread bets.
Once we had narrowed our search to
spotlight road underdogs, we decided to determine the ideal range for public betting at our seven contributing sportsbooks.
We're previously written about game 7 betting trends, and our research has indicated that
road underdogs tend to be undervalued.
In a battle of 1 - 2 teams, the Eagles opened as 3 -
point road underdogs at CRIS and have received 83 % of spread bets.
Early bets are all over Oklahoma as they're receiving a whopping 75 % of bets
as road underdogs.
Although it's not the sexiest matchup, Tulsa opened as 1 - point
road underdogs at Bookmaker for Saturday's showdown with Navy.
Bettors may be interested to know that if you focus
on road underdogs with an over / under of 44 or less the return on investment jumps to 19.2 %, however, the number of past matches is more than cut in half resulting in a profit of just 49.16 units.
Last week I argued that a combination of sharp money indicators and historical betting trends indicated that Wake Forest was offering value as a small
road underdog against Duke.
Road underdogs of at least 7 - points have gone just 426 - 406 (51.2 %), which isn't a high enough winning percentage to cover the standard -110 juice charged by sportsbooks.
Both teams are currently
road underdogs receiving less than 25 % of spread bets as they travel to Pittsburgh and San Francisco, respectively.
I'm fading the trendy
road underdog here and siding with the sharper money by taking West Brom to win at +132 odds.
Although road favorites have historically provided more value to college football spread bettors, there's been excellent value taking
small road underdogs (between -110 and +425) on the moneyline.
They're getting just 31 % of tickets to win at home while there's tons of public support on
big road underdogs West Brom (+400 odds).
The other pick I'm making is on Bournemouth -117 vs. Hull City, and again I'm fading the public here on a big
trendy road underdog.
Before the start of the season we published our 2014 - 15 College Basketball Betting Against the Public report which explained how bettors could capitalize on contrarian value by taking
large road underdogs following a loss.
When we narrow our focus to examine
solely road underdogs, this system improves to a 76 - 90 record with +21.74 units won and a 13.1 % ROI.
Past research has also found that
road underdogs perform extremely well in low - scoring games, which bodes well for Wake Forest.
The Cowboys are listed -2.5 against the Sooners, and the public is hammering Oklahoma as
short road underdogs.
-- The Minnesota Wild are currently receiving just 28 % of moneyline bets as a
+175 road underdog today against the Chicago Blackhawks.
Mark (via email): What is the ATS record for College Basketball double digit (+10 points or more)
road underdogs when only 25 % or less of the public played that side?
This information provides yet another reason to like the Heat as a large
road underdog tonight — especially as they ride a three - game losing streak.
As you can see from the screenshot above, in games with low
totals road underdogs experiencing reverse line movement have gone 565 - 499 (53.1 %) with +39.04 units won and a 3.7 % ROI.
Leicester, Swansea, Burnley, and Hull are trendy
popular road underdogs in Week 8, which usually makes for great fade material.
Our Week 5 contrarian betting system (which is available for ESPN Insider subscribers)
highlights road underdogs who performed poorly in the previous season.
Somehow the Bengals were listed as 2.5 - point
road underdogs even though they were also listed as 2 - point road favorites for their Week 13 showdown.
Road underdogs often provide value but this is especially true in conference games where the teams are familiar with each other.
Before the season we wrote our annual College Basketball and Betting Against the Public article, which found that
road underdogs of 10 - 20 points had won at a 54.6 % clip since 2008.
Forensic ATS information on this game: Charlotte 0 - 14 in same season revenge for home loss in which Tryus Thomas was held to single digit scoring, 6 - 25 versus an opponent averaging 20 or fewer assists per game, 4 - 17 off game as road underdogs
We started by focusing
on road underdogs, and adjusted the previous game margin from 15 + to 16 + to maximize our profits.
Since the 2005 regular season,
road underdogs receiving less than 45 % of moneyline bets have an overall record of 1712 - 2654.
Betting road underdogs in heavily bet conference games has gone 214 - 144 (59.8 %) ATS, +59.7 units all - time.
Betting
road underdogs in games with low totals after a bad season has been highly profitable.
Back the home team at -140 here and fade the public bettors taking a
big road underdog.
As 45 - point
road underdogs, it was easy to think before the game that this would be little more than a tune - up match for the UNLV Rebels; a chance to put their team to a light test before taking on bigger schools on the schedule.