The phrase
"stochastic trend" refers to a pattern or movement that is not predictable or consistent, but rather random or unpredictable. It suggests that there is no clear direction or pattern to a certain trend, and it can change or fluctuate unexpectedly.
Full definition
We use three different tests to determine the presence
of stochastic trends in a selected group of global climate change data for the longest time series available.
This inability has little effect on the results — statistical estimates are based on the notion of cointegration, which
uses stochastic trends as fingerprints to match temporal changes in temperature and radiative forcing.
«The seasonal unit root test makes it possible to determine
the stochastic trend of monthly temperatures using an autoregressive model,» says Prof. Wai Ming To.
This representation is flawed both statistically, because time series that contain
a stochastic trend can not be approximated by a deterministic trend (13), and historically, because the time trend overstates gains in radiative forcing during the 1950's and overstates gains during the last 10 y (Fig. 1).