Low air pressure in the core — a measure
of storm strength — bottomed out at 879 millibars, making Patricia, officially, the most powerful hurricane ever measured in the western hemisphere.
There is no scientific basis for thinking that an
increasing storm strength trend would limit itself permanently to cat 4s, and as noted below a good basis for thinking otherwise.
Tselioudis, G., and W.B. Rossow, 2006: Climate feedback implied by observed radiation and precipitation changes with
midlatitude storm strength and frequency.
It will also be interesting to see plaintiffs explain this graph of accumulated cyclone energy in the light of their theory that man - made global warming is increasing hurricane strengths and frequencies (ACE is a sort of integration of hurricane and tropical
storm strengths over time).
This brings us to your next argument: «There is no scientific basis for thinking that an increasing
storm strength trend would limit itself permanently to cat 4s, and as noted below a good basis for thinking otherwise.»
The storm only briefly hit tropical
storm strength on Saturday as it came ashore from the Pacific Ocean over the weekend, but the death toll had risen to 115 at last count.
3:50 p.m. Updated Hurricane Irene «s predicted track, and rainfall potential, have some similarity to those of Hurricane Floyd, which dumped devastating amounts of rain in the Northeast in 1999 after it weakened to tropical
storm strength following landfall near Cape Fear, N.C.
Climate scientist Kerry Emanuel describes physics behind expected increase in
storm strength due to climate change.
Moreover, damage escalates exponentially
when storm strength crosses over the thresholds beyond which threatened infrastructure collapses.
There is no appreciable long - term variation of the total number of tropical
storm strength cyclones observed in the north Indian, south - west Indian and south - west Pacific Oceans east of 160 ° E. (Neumann, 1993; Lander and Guard, 1998).
Tselioudis, G., and W.B. Rossow, 2006: Climate feedback implied by observed radiation and precipitation changes with
midlatitude storm strength and frequency.
The ACE index (see Box 3.5), is essentially a wind energy index, defined as the sum of the squares of the estimated six - hour maximum sustained wind speed (knots) for all named systems while they are at least
tropical storm strength.
There is, however, limited evidence from a relatively short time period that
storm strength is increasing, such as the Emanuel (2005) «power dissipation index» of hurricane intensity.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center in May projected between a dozen and 16 named storms, including 2 to 5 major hurricanes (those above Category 3 on the Saffir - Simpson scale of
storm strength).
In the meantime, keep a weather eye on the Web site of the National Hurricane Center and Kerry Emanuel's page at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, which collects a variety of forecasts of
storm strengths and tracks.
Emanuel's finding defies existing models for measuring
storm strength.
Computer models that simulate the physics of tropical cyclones suggest that this difference should increase as the climate and sea surface temperatures warm, and that
storm strength should increase with it.
Remember, life lost in a hurricane correlates much higher with poverty in the area the hurricane hit rather than with
storm strength, as demonstrated by recent cyclones in Asia.
Storm strength is determined by wind speed, which is largely influenced by pressure and temperature gradients.
Last thought for a while — is the observed increase in the height of the troposphere a measure of
storm strength?