This has resulted in a modest suppression of 200 mb upper tropospheric easterly wind anomalies in the tropical Atlantic, thereby increasing
vertical wind shear in the western Atlantic.
El Niño, the large - scale weather pattern that creates
strong wind shear in the upper levels of the atmosphere, disrupts storm formation.
The National Weather Service predicts increased vertical
wind shear over the Caribbean Sea and this limits hurricanes, so they're predicting an average season.
While the warming atmosphere and higher humidity can provide more energy for these storms, the climate change effects
on wind shear, another important element in storm development, is still an active topic of research.
Warm ocean waters, combined with
little wind shear that could have torn the embryonic storm apart, allowed...
A recent paper by Vecchi and Soden (preprint) published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters has been widely touted in the news (and some egregiously bad editorials), and the blogosphere as suggesting that increased vertical
wind shear associated with tropical circulation changes may offset any tendencies for increased hurricane activity in the tropical Atlantic due to warming oceans.
«A very strong ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere has made for very
weak wind shear from just east of the Caribbean islands all the way to the U.S..
Using statistical analysis, the new study shows that even in ocean basins where
reduced wind shear plays a role, warming sea - surface temperature is the dominant driver.
As a result, expected changes in occurrence and intensity would be driven
by wind shear changes.
Li, L., A.P. Ingersoll, A.R. Vasavada, A.A. Simon - Miller, A.D. Del Genio, S.P. Ewald, C.C. Porco, and R.A. West, 2006:
Vertical wind shear on Jupiter from Cassini images.
«We found no long - term trend in things
like wind shear,» said study team member Judith Curry of the Georgia Institute of Technology.
CEO Elon Musk took to Twitter to address the delay, «High
altitude wind shear data shows a probable 2 % load exceedance.
Harvey's rapid intensification from a tropical depression to an 85 - mile - per - hour hurricane in less than 24 hours was due to favorable conditions — warm water and low wind shear [29]-- in the Gulf of Mexico, where sea surface temperatures were up to 2.7 - 7.2 °F (1.5 - 4 °C) above the 1961 - 1990 average.
This would imply, that in a warmer world where the Arctic ice had vanished, there would be
less wind shear so allowing more hurricanes to form in the tropical North Atlantic.
To gauge the hurricane season, forecasters use various climatological clues, such as the state of the El Niño cycles, as well as expected trends in ocean temperatures and a measure
called wind shear, which can cut off storm formation.
Because a monsoon brings southerly winds into China, a weaker summer monsoon would decrease the overall low
tropospheric wind shear.
«Roles of
wind shear at different vertical levels, Part I: Cloud system organization and properties.»
High
wind shear tends to blow the tops off storms and saps them of their strength.
Wind shear also helps to keep a thunderstorm's updraft separated from its downdraft, increasing the storm's strength and duration.
Instead, their findings tie the growth in frequency to trends in the vertical
wind shear found in certain supercells — a change not so far associated with a warmer climate.
El Niño also tends to bring
more wind shear to the region, meaning the speed and direction of the wind changes more between different altitudes, putting the kibosh on a burgeoning storm.
Strong
wind shear helped suppress storm development during the 2009 hurricane season.
Normally, says Jeff Masters of Weather Underground, it's «difficult for a major Category 3 or stronger hurricane crossing north of North Carolina to maintain that intensity,
because wind shear rapidly increases and ocean temperatures plunge below the 26 °C (79 °F) level that can support a hurricane.»
Conditions are otherwise favorable for intensification through Sunday, with a moist atmosphere,
light wind shear less than 10 knots, and very warm ocean waters near 30 °C (86 °F).
IMAGE: NASA's Aqua satellite passed over Dumazile on March 7 and showed a well - defined low - level center of circulation and strong
wind shear pushed most of the clouds south of the center....
Detail: Emergency crisis beacons flashed on and off when the
sub-arctic wind shear struck without warning.
Emergency crisis beacons flashed on and off when the sub-arctic
wind shear struck without warning.
Phrases with «wind shear»