The phrase "modeled trends" refers to predicting or portraying the patterns or tendencies of something based on a specific model or representation. Full definition
In statistics, this means that the observed trend is inconsistent with the collection of model trends. (cato.org)
Comparison of observed trends (colored circles according to legend) with the climate model trends (black circles) for periods from 10 to 64 years in length. (cato.org)