Superimposed on the secular trend is a natural multidecadal oscillation of an average period of 70 y with significant amplitude of 0.3 — 0.4 °C peak to peak, which can explain many historical episodes of warming and cooling and accounts for 40 % of the observed warming since the mid-20th century and for 50 % of the previously
attributed anthropogenic warming trend (55).
He models only «internal fluctuations» around the
overall anthropogenic warming trend, so if warming seems to stall for a few years, it must catch up to the long - term trend, sometimes quite rapidly.
Second, their unphysical claim isn't really a conclusion; it's actually the assumption that (if true) would have justified removing the AMO to determine
the anthropogenic warming trend.
Tung and Zhou repeat the analysis of Foster and Rahmstorf 2011 (PDF) in Figure 5 while also removing the AMO, and obtain
an anthropogenic warming trend over the last 33 years of 0.07 °C / decade, less than half of Foster and Rahmstorf's 0.17 °C / decade.
The orthodox explanation for that one is that the cooling effect of white aerosols such as sulphates — released from coal and oil burning — was masking the warming effect of greenhouse gases until various clean air acts allowed
the anthropogenic warming trend to re-emerge.
But more importantly, as Swanson and Tsonis put it, these shifts are superimposed on
an anthropogenic warming trend.
It's this final phrase, «superimposed on
an anthropogenic warming trend», that Swanson and Tsonis explore further in a subsequent research.
Tsonis and Swanson suggest an «alternative hypothesis, namely that the climate shifted after the 1970s event to a different state of a warmer climate, which may be superimposed on
an anthropogenic warming trend».
Over the most recent 17 - year period, the BEST trend is 0.36 °C per decade *, clearly showing
the anthropogenic warming trend over that period.
However, comparison of the 2035 event in the 21st century simulation and the 1910s event in the observations with this event, suggests an alternative hypothesis, namely that the climate shifted after the 1970s event to a different state of a warmer climate, which may be superimposed on
an anthropogenic warming trend.
The removal of the AMO in the determination of
the anthropogenic warming trend is justified if one accepts our previous argument that this multidecadal variability is mostly natural.