Most of the moisture is found below about 10,000 feet, so that is where the effect
of changes in lapse rate will be felt, and the effect of an increase in moisture is to decrease the near - surface lapse rate, potentially resulting in an important negative feedback on radiative forcing.
One resolves in this manner the short - term components of the climate response, such as hydrological perturbations associated
with changes in lapse rate.
As the hot spot is due to
changes in the lapse rate, we expect to see a short - term hot spot.
«
Changes in the lapse rate» is not as sexy or intuitive as a greenhouse signature but that's the physical reality.
The tropospheric hot spot is due to
changes in the lapse rate (Bengtsson 2009, Trenberth 2006, Ramaswamy 2006).