Confidence limits refer to the range of values within which the true value of something is likely to fall. It represents a level of uncertainty or error associated with a measurement or estimate.
Full definition
The past 12 to 13 years show cooling using both satellite data sets, with
lower confidence limits that do not exclude a negative trend until 16 to 22 years.
The single year
confidence limits of stocks are of the order of plus and minus 40 % to 50 % (for two standard deviations).
This discussion of 95 %
confidence limits seems to neglect the important difference between criteria for science and policy - making.
The inner confidence levels are half way between the regression equations (i.e., the straight lines) and the
regular confidence limits.
Since the inner
confidence limits cover 60 % of probable outcomes, this requires us to generate four to five times as many sequences as usual.
Where's the statistical analysis that shows that the theoretical trend is, in fact outside the 95 %
confidence limits of the data?
For what it is worth; my own view is that the models ARE useful for projections for this century, and that the wide
confidence limits on those projections is a reasonable and cautious recognition that models are a long way from perfect.
(a) Changes in the global mean fire weather season length from 1979 to 2013 with 95 %
confidence limits between ensemble members (shaded area).
Equation: y = 106600 / [P / E10] + 15981 1.64 standard deviations = 5845
Confidence limits = plus and minus $ 5845 by formula.
Although the linear regression line values are quite different, the error margins mean that there is considerable overlap between the 95 %
confidence limits so the two data sets are in fact in statistical agreement.
Also, why does East Antactica, having a sparser population of surface stations, not have
wider confidence limits than East Antarctica?
In S09, Fig. 2 (reconstructed AWS), the 95 %
confidence limits spans approximately + / - 1 C for both East and West Antarctica.
I used the 20 % and 80 % (inner)
confidence limits in a Bear Market to define two P / E10 levels: 14 and 21.