The observed regional changes are consistent in pattern and amount with the changes in SST and the assumption of a near -
constant relative humidity increase in water vapour mixing ratio.
Actual physical observations have shown that net cloud feedback is very likely to be negative rather than strongly positive and that the net water vapor plus lapse rate feedback is around half of the amount estimated with
assumed constant relative humidity.
Total column water vapour has increased over the global oceans by 1.2 ± 0.3 % per decade from 1988 to 2004, consistent in pattern and amount with changes in SST and a
fairly constant relative humidity.
Current state - of - the - art climate models predict that increasing water vapor concentrations in warmer air will amplify the greenhouse effect created by anthropogenic greenhouse gases while maintaining
nearly constant relative humidity.
In their analysis of long - term data, Sun and Oort found that water vapor variations with temperature in the tropical domain did not
match constant relative humidity.
Now they do something even more interesting and plot the results of changes in specific humidity (q) with temperature and compare with the curve
for constant relative humidity:
Modtran indicates that maintaining constant clear sky upward flux after a doubling of CO2 (70 KM altitude, looking down,
constant relative humidity) requires ~ 1.9 C higher surface temperature in the tropics but a bit less than 1C in the subarctic.
One question is «Now repeat the calculation but at
constant relative humidity.
They had built the first completely correct radiative - convective implementation of the standard model applied to Earth, and used it to calculate a +2 C equilibrium warming for doubling CO2, including the water vapour feedback, assuming
constant relative humidity.
The dashed line to the right is the curve of
constant relative humidity.
«The increases in water vapor with warmer temperatures are not large enough to maintain
a constant relative humidity,» Minschwaner said.
The GCM assumption of
constant relative humidity is wrong and is yet another proof that the climate predictions of the IPCC are wrong.
IOW we have both the magnitude and the sign of water vapor feedback still in question (except, of course, by the IPCC orthodoxy, which assumes positive feedback at a rate high enough to essentially maintain
constant relative humidity in lockstep with Clausius - Clapeyron).
28 Estimated Strength of Water Vapor Feedback Earliest studies suggest that if the absolute humidity increases in proportion to the saturation vapor pressure (
constant relative humidity), this will give rise to a water vapor feedback that will double the sensitivity of climate compared to an assumption of fixed absolute humidity.
Isaac — Among unsettled issues is the change in upper tropospheric humidity with warming — specific humdity increases, but there is conflicting information as to whether this increase is sufficient to maintain a near -
constant relative humidity (RH — e.g. Minschwaner and Dessler 2004 as compared with Soden et al 2005).