In recent decades, a number of groups have tried combining sets of these proxy records together to construct long - term estimates
of global temperature change over the last millennium or so.
The analyses are based on calculating temperature differences at one point in time relative to the average over a certain period (anomalies) and creating a time series of
averaged global temperature change.
Drawing from both social psychology and climate science, the new model investigates how human behavioral changes evolve in response to extreme climate events and
affect global temperature change.
It is clear why the satellite method is more responsive at
detecting global temperature change, but that doesn't explain why the station method is becoming less effective over time.
Combining climate projections and social processes, the model
predicts global temperature change ranging from 3.4 to 6.2 °C by 2100, compared to 4.9 °C from the climate model alone.
We calculate
global temperature change for a given CO2 scenario using a climate response function (Table S3) that accurately replicates results from a global climate model with sensitivity 3 °C for doubled CO2 [64].
The paper shows that the estimated
observed global temperature change from 1998 - 2012 is between -0.03 and +0.13 C per decade, mean 0.05 C. Within 95 % probability, it could be zero or negative.
Similar to the implied sensitivity in Hansen and Sato, a ~ 4 °C
global temperature change caused by a ~ 6 W / m2 forcing corresponds to a ~ 2.5 °C sensitivity to doubled CO2.
We
calculate global temperature change for a given CO2 scenario using a climate response function (Table S3) that accurately replicates results from a global climate model with sensitivity 3 °C for doubled CO2 [64].
In our year - 2000 published analysis of these data through 1997 (Causes of
Global Temperature Changes During the 19th and 20th Centuries, Geophysical Research Letters, 27:14, 2137 - 2140; Natalia Andronova & Michael Schlesinger), we showed that this warming was predominantly due to people.
«I would like input from any of them on what they presume might be the value of
estimating global temperature changes in a manner not involving the grids or other forms of local averaging.»
These facts were enough for an NAS panel, including Christy, to publish a report Reconciling Observations of
Global Temperature Change which concluded that «Despite differences in temperature data, strong evidence exists to show that the warming of the Earth's surface is undoubtedly real, and surface temperatures in the past two decades have risen at a rate substantially greater than average for the past 100 years»
However some people probably won't be worried, because they simply can't seem to compute that
small global temperature changes over time can have severe impacts like this that could reshape climate systems.
NASA
reports global temperature change in reference to a 1951 - 1980 climate baseline, and NOAA reports the anomaly in reference to a 20th century average temperature.
Phrases with «global temperature change»