The fact that this special election
comes in a presidential year, where voters are twice as likely to visit the polls, makes just about anything possible.
It is fairly easy for a party to meet the
test in presidential years, when there are six statewide partisan races on the ballot in most years.
Opposition research from Republican operatives had been hanging over her candidacy in the county, where Democrats see a rare opening to gain
seats in a presidential year when Donald Trump's candidacy may keep some centrist Republicans away from the polls.
Minor parties generally poll enough
votes in presidential years to remain ballot - qualified, because there are either four or five statewide offices on the ballot.
That might help the Republicans in the general election — especially
in a presidential year when more Democrats will be coming out to vote than usual — but would no doubt further inflame the conservative grassroots, which is already not a fan of Flanagan due to his «yes» vote on the SAFE Act.
Also, Jacobs has in past elections demonstrated crossover appeal — especially in Democrat - dominated Erie County — and now that he's looking toward a general election battle with the winner of the Democratic primary, Amber Small, he needs to take a pragmatic approach if he's to have a shot of
winning in a presidential year in a district that has a Democratic enrollment edge.
Meanwhile, Democrats are banking on the belief that they can better identify potential supporters, motivate them and get them to the polls — in essence, reshape the midterm electorate to make it look more like the
electorate in a presidential year.
U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson's win over Democratic former Sen. Russ Feingold marks the first time since 1980 that a Republican has won election to the
Senate in a presidential year in Wisconsin.
He saw his defeat at the hands of no - name Frank Skartados in 2008 as a fluke, one of those weird things that
happens in presidential years where thousands of previously unregistered voters take to the polls.
«After a campaign in which we faced extraordinary challenges and yet still managed to grow our
majority in a Presidential year, I couldn't be more proud to lead this outstanding group of lawmakers.»
Other Republicans are saying that Trump's candidacy is generating a lot of excitement among GOP voters, which will be good for the party in terms of combatting the higher - than - expected turnout among Democrats that tends to
occur in presidential years.
On February 27, the Oklahoma Senate unanimously passed SB 668, which eases ballot access for newly - qualifying parties in midterm years, but does not reduce the number of
signatures in presidential years.
The Democratic nominee in 2014, Sean Eldridge, lost this toss - up district by 20 points, but turnout has been
double in presidential years and without an incumbent, it'll be harder for the GOP to hold the seat.
He won by over 11,000 two years later, but Democrats are optimistic his seat will be
winnable in a presidential year, when their voters usually turn out at higher numbers.
Latimer, however, has an eight - to - one cash - on - hand advantage, and it seems unlikely that a seat that has been repeatedly targeted by Republicans over three decades would finally
flip in a presidential year.
Arkansas requires a party to poll 3 % for the office at the top of the ballot in each election, in order to stay on the ballot (i.e., 3 % for
President in presidential years, and 3 % for Governor in midterm years).
But given the swing nature of her northern Virginia district and the higher turnout
expected in a presidential year, Democrats say if they're going to take the seat, this is the time.
«This groundbreaking proposal will almost certainly bolster Oregon's best - in - the nation turnout rates that exceed 80
percent in presidential years and provide a clear roadmap for states like ours that have much room for improvement,» Miner said.
(Of course, Obama will undoubtedly help people like Sen. Amy Klobuchar in Minnesota and Sen. Debbie Stabenow in Michigan — two states with strong Democratic bases that will turn out more
heavily in a presidential year than they would in a midterm election.)
Pelosi pointed out that Democratic turnout tends to
spike in presidential years and has repeatedly said the GOP's refusal to pass a comprehensive immigration reform bill will doom its chances of winning the White House next year and beyond.
Michigan is tough for any incumbent given the state of the state's economy, but in order to beat an established candidate like
Stabenow in a presidential year, Republicans will need a strong candidate of their own.